Historical Trends Show What To Expect For Bitcoin Price Following The Halving

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In about two days, the 2024 Bitcoin halving will take place, leading to different predictions regarding its impact on the BTC price. To better comprehend potential price movements, it’s helpful to examine historical trends when similar events occurred.

Bitcoin Price Trends For Previous Halvings

Three significant events called “halvings” have occurred since Bitcoin’s creation in 2009. During each of these occasions, Bitcoin showed distinct responses. The first halving transpired on November 28, 2012; the second occurred on July 9, 2016; and the most recent one took place on May 11, 2020.

In this report, I will focus on the last two Bitcoin halvings mentioned (2016 being one of them). Adoption was already gaining traction when these events occurred. The first occurrence happened in 2016, with Bitcoin trading around $650. Post-halving, there was a significant price drop of approximately 30%, reaching as low as $460 before recovering.

During the 2020 Bitcoin halving, the price hovered around $10,000. After the event, there was a decline in price, but it wasn’t as drastic as the 2016 drop. The BTC price dipped by roughly 15% instead.

After each Bitcoin halving, it’s become common for the price to decrease instead of rising as anticipated. Consequently, should this pattern persist, Bitcoin’s value might experience a significant decline, even though there is optimism that the halving itself will boost prices.

In simpler terms, after each Bitcoin halving event, the market response has been less severe compared to previous halvings. For instance, the post-halving decline in 2020 was smaller than that in 2016. Therefore, based on this trend, a potential Bitcoin crash this year might result in a comparatively mild drop, around 7-8%.

BTC Deviates From Established Halving Trends

The historical information indicates some possible directions for Bitcoin after the price drop. However, it is worth mentioning that Bitcoin has shown differences from previous trends leading up to the halving. For instance, Bitcoin reached an unprecedented new peak prior to the halving event. This anomaly might imply a significant departure from past patterns, implying that a post-halving crash may not occur as anticipated.

The period of around three weeks prior to the last two Bitcoin halvings has consistently seen price increases, or “green” markets. Conversely, during the upcoming halving in 2024, the market has shown a downtrend for the past three weeks with declining prices, suggesting that this trend might deviate from the typical post-halving patterns.

It’s important to note that the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, has a history of being unpredictable. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index indicates that investors are still optimistic, as the index hasn’t left the “greed” zone. However, if Bitcoin goes against the current trend, there’s a possibility it could experience a significant drop in value.

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2024-04-17 23:10