Will ONDO’s $1 Support Hold Amid $2.4 Billion Token Unlock? Danger Ahead!1

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Despite the general optimism in the wider cryptocurrency sector, the situation appears bleak for ONDO Finance. Currently, the market is experiencing a significant downturn, which is being driven by a strong surge of bearish demand, causing the immediate price trend to be quite pessimistic.

Is it likely that the upcoming surge in supply will dip below the $1 psychological level, or could we instead see a rebound leading to a fresh record high?

Ondo Price Analysis Fails To Find Incoming Supply

In the daily price chart, ONDO is experiencing a prolonged pullback period, hovering close to the $1.24 level while registering a daily increase of 2.59%. The current price for ONDO stands at $1.28. Over the last 24 hours, its volatility was approximately 2.8%, and it has a market capitalization of around $1.85 billion. Trading volume in the last 24 hours amounted to roughly $313.13 million, with the price trending near its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line.

After reaching its peak of $2.14, the subsequent decrease in price has amounted to over 40%. However, the temporary resistance at $1.18 alters the direction of ONDO’s price movement, causing it to move sideways instead.

Despite an increasing pessimism causing a challenging intersection of the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Average lines, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line is also trending below the midpoint. Yet, the bullish divergence in the RSI line suggests a potential bullish turnaround.

Analyzing the recent market trend using Fibonacci levels based on the rise from November to December, followed by the current downturn, indicates that the short-term price objective could be around the 23.60% Fibonacci level.

The current resistance level stands at $1.52, indicating a possible 22% growth in the short term. Conversely, if there’s a downturn, it might challenge the existing bullish trend around the $1 price point.

The Gigantic Token Unlock Warns ONDO Price Crash

Although the positive outlook suggested in the ONDO price assessment seems promising, the imminent release of the Mammoth Tokens could potentially trigger a flood of supply in the market.

In the competitive landscape of leading real-world asset tokens, ONDO finds it challenging to keep pace with the expanding RWA sector. With this backdrop, an upcoming unlock event for 1.94 billion ONDO tokens, valued at approximately $2.4 billion in crypto, is on the horizon for the RWA digital currency.

Introducing such a large number of tokens into circulation could potentially overwhelm the market with excessive selling pressure. The upcoming token release represents over 130% of the current ONDO market value ($1.8 billion), leading many market observers to predict a significant sell-off as a result.

On January 19, the inauguration of President Trump is among the rare positive triggers that investors can rely on to pause their selling frenzy.

ONDO Whale Takes A Smart Exit

In the face of increasing concerns about an imminent price drop, a large investor has offloaded all its ONDO holdings. By selling 10.978 million ONDO tokens, this investor liquidated their position at a loss of approximately $3.54 million. Over just 38 days, the value of these tokens dropped by 20.7%, resulting in a substantial loss for the investor. However, they managed to accumulate 13.58 million USDC tokens as a result.

Although some viewed the latest transaction as an instance of selling too early (or “paper handed”), the impending token release might instead demonstrate a shrewd move to leave the market before a possible price drop.

Key Support Levels for ONDO

With the warning from the token unlock indicating a possible downward trend, the analysis of the price action indicates a robust level of support at the $1 psychological figure. Yet, the significant selling force resulting from the large token unlock could potentially shatter several levels of support.

Given these circumstances, the global in-and-out-of-the-money indicator from InterTheBlog emphasizes a significant area of support. At present, the in-the-money range spans from $1.15 to $1.28, accommodating approximately 749.66 million ONDO tokens. This is followed by a supply zone ranging from $1 to $1.15, which holds around 315.96 million ONDO tokens.

In simpler terms, the price point of around $1 serves as a significant junction where a positive change (bullish) might occur. The immediate critical area is located between approximately $0.90 and $1, containing roughly 47.66 million ONDO tokens.

Therefore, the areas at $1.15, $1, and $0.90 might serve as potential areas where ONDO could find support and potentially reverse its downward trend, indicating a possible bullish recovery.

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2025-01-17 19:57