In a delightful twist of fate, our esteemed market technician, the illustrious Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow), has unearthed a singular metric—the 20-month simple moving average—that may very well be the line separating a dizzying ascent from a catastrophic nosedive for our beloved Dogecoin. At present, DOGE lounges comfortably above this moving average, now perched at a rather precise $0.1751. The black curve on Cat’s chart, reminiscent of a well-groomed feline, reveals a mere three retests of the 20-month SMA since the dawn of 2014. Quite the rarity, wouldn’t you say? 🐱👤
All Eyes On Dogecoin’s 20-Month SMA
Our first rendezvous with this average occurred in March 2017, when the price flirted with the average at a paltry $0.00020, only to catapult over 9,000% into the dizzying heights of January 2018. The second encounter took place in the winter of 2020, where the price, like a bashful suitor, brushed against the average at a quarter of a cent before embarking on a parabolic escapade of 34,500% to $0.73 the following May. The third and current dalliance began in August of last year, when DOGE decided to rally by a staggering 480%. Talk about a dramatic love story! 💔
As of today, two consecutive monthly candles have dipped into the zone just below twenty cents, but fear not! Both were snatched up with gusto, leaving higher wicks and preserving the upward slope of our dear average. Cantonese Cat, ever the optimist, asserts that as long as this moving average remains intact, “we’re going higher.” However, a decisive monthly close beneath $0.175 could spell doom, ushering in a multi-month downtrend reminiscent of the 2018 and 2021 debacles. Oh, the drama! 🎭
TOTAL2 Needs To Break Out
Now, let us turn our attention to the astute analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA), who has taken this micro view and painted it on a much grander canvas. His chart tracks the total crypto market capitalization, excluding Bitcoin (the TradingView ticker “TOTAL2”), in monthly candles dating back to 2017. Two bold yellow trend-lines delineate a seven-year rising channel, whose upper rail has repelled price at the January 2018 and November 2021 alt-season peaks. Since the June 2022 low, the market has crafted an ascending triangle, a series of higher lows pressing against a flat-topped supply zone between approximately $1.43 trillion and $1.7 trillion. Quite the architectural feat! 🏗️
The apex of this triangle now looms ominously; the aggregate alt-cap is already valued at about $1.2 trillion. All that stands between our current print and a confirmed breakout is a monthly close above the upper edge of that yellow rectangle. Kevin’s projections, as grand as they are, measure the height of the pattern and add it to the breakout level, dropping a vertical marker that intersects the mid-channel near a staggering $5.89 trillion. One can only dream! 💭
Kevin’s first Fibonacci extensions target the 1.618 at $4.06 trillion, with higher extensions clustering around $4.57 trillion, $5.89 trillion, and $6.9 trillion, the last of which aligns almost perfectly with the channel’s ceiling. This is circled as the analyst’s ultimate upside objective. Why, you ask? Because the meme-coin’s explosive cycles have historically begun only after TOTAL2 has broken its own prior-cycle high, allowing money to flow into non-Bitcoin assets. Kevin confidently states that “altcoins are just scratching the surface of what is possible in the coming months,” provided that macro-liquidity and regulatory factors permit capital rotation out of Bitcoin into the wider market. A veritable gold rush awaits! 💰
In this scenario, the 20-month SMA on DOGE would likely continue its upward trajectory, setting the stage for yet another explosive move. Conversely, should the alt-cap triangle fail, a sustained loss of the SMA becomes far more probable, robbing DOGE of its historical launch-pad. The stakes are high, dear reader!
For now, the indicator holds—and with it, the tantalizing prospect that Dogecoin could be primed for yet another bout of furious upside. But as both analysts caution, the monthly close will tell the tale: above the 20-month SMA and an alt-cap breakout, or below it and back into hibernation. The suspense is positively palpable! 😱
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.189. A fitting end to this rollercoaster of a tale!
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2025-06-12 18:42