As a seasoned analyst with years of experience navigating the volatile world of cryptocurrency markets, I have learned to expect the unexpected and remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s performance. While it’s tempting to make predictions based on historical trends, I must remind myself that past performance is not always indicative of future results.
Month by month, Bitcoin‘s performance can fluctuate significantly depending on investor sentiment towards the market. Over time, this data has prompted investors and analysts to predict Bitcoin’s future direction based on its historical trends. With August nearing its end, Bitcoin investors are eagerly anticipating September, hoping that it brings more favorable developments.
Bitcoin Looks To End August On A Negative Note
Initially, Bitcoin’s value surged, but as August progressed, it experienced several drops in value. The opening week alone witnessed a 30% drop in Bitcoin’s price, leading to a broader market downturn that affected altcoins more significantly.
After that point, the Bitcoin price has rebounded somewhat, however, it remains significantly below its initial value. This recent drop indicates that August is continuing a trend seen over the past two years, ending with negative returns. At the moment of this writing, as per data from Coinglass, the Bitcoin price has decreased by 6.03% in the month of August.
In simpler terms, the Bitcoin price hasn’t been unusually high this month compared to its history. Since it started, there have been more months where its value dropped (red) than increased (green). From 2013 onwards, we have 12 years of monthly returns, and in only about 67% of those years did the Bitcoin price end the year with an increase. This means that August has seen a positive close for Bitcoin fewer than four times over these 12 years.
In August, it appears that the digital asset has only closed the month with gains during bull market periods. For instance, in 2017, there was a significant increase of 65.32%, while 2020 and 2021 also saw positive returns of 2.83% and 13.8%, respectively.
Will September Be Better?
Over the past eleven years, it’s been more detrimental for the value of Bitcoin in September than in August. Out of these years, there have been eight months with negative returns compared to only three months with positive ones. This results in an average monthly loss of approximately 4.78% for September.
anticipation is high for a turnaround in September, but some are skeptical. Cryptocurrency analyst @btc_charlie on X (previously Twitter) has issued a caution that the month of September might not follow the expected trend.
He points out that the same people who are saying that prices will go up are the same people who missed the Bitcoin bottom and top. Instead, he directs investors to look at the average monthly returns for September, which are negative, when making their decisions.
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2024-08-23 06:04