When Dogecoin Sleeps, It Dreams of $4 🐶💰

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So, there I was, scrolling through my feeds, when I stumbled upon the musings of Cantonese Cat, a crypto analyst with a name that sounds like a character from a children’s book. According to this feline enthusiast, Dogecoin’s six-month consolidation is not a sign of its impending doom, but rather a coiled spring, ready to launch into the stratosphere—potentially to $4.13. 🚀

The analyst starts by addressing the mood of the masses. Apparently, retail comment threads have turned into a digital version of a high school cafeteria, where everyone is complaining about how Doge has been “doing nothing for months.” But Cantonese Cat, with the wisdom of a seasoned trader, points out that this is exactly what bull markets are designed to do: “A lot of people are getting really bitter about Doge … that’s exactly how higher highs and higher low type situations are supposed to get you all frustrated. This is still a bull trend until proven otherwise.” 🙄

Zooming out, Dogecoin is tracing what he calls “still a cup and … still a handle until proven otherwise.” The first thrust of that handle stopped just shy of the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, a level so important that it might as well be the Holy Grail of crypto. Because initial attempts rarely break through such resistance, he expected a rejection. But the real test is where the pullback found support: “In the case of Dogecoin, it decided to go all the way down to 0.382, which is nothing unusual … this is actually a pretty important zone of this nice Adam-and-Eve double bottom.” 🤷‍♂️

On the monthly chart, Dogecoin is sitting beneath a “pretty thick Ichimoku cloud,” which sounds like something out of a sci-fi movie. Two breakout attempts have failed, leaving behind wicks that look ominous to the untrained eye. But Cantonese Cat sees it differently: “We had a little bit of a false breakout here on the monthly … I think a third time is going to be the charm.” Beneath the cloud, six consecutive monthly candles have nested inside the tall green bar from last November, building up energy like a pressure cooker. 🌡️

On the weekly chart, the same pattern emerges: “If you also look at the weekly here, you can also see that you have six inside candles over here too … that tells me that there is not much bearish energy necessarily left anymore. I think we’re closer to the bottom than the top.” 📉

Key support is provided by a rising 20-month simple moving average, currently at $0.1737. Price is currently below it, but the slope is still positive. Historically, such combinations resolve in favor of the trend: “If you have a 20-month moving average that is up-sloping, most likely this is just going to be a wick.” He cites an earlier cycle when Dogecoin dipped below the same metric before staging a dramatic reversal. 🔄

Price action, he argues, is meaningless without context. “If I end up looking at Doge here on Coinbase and I pull up the volume here, you can also see that there is no selling volume here at all.” Binance, the world’s deepest Dogecoin market, shows the same lack of selling pressure. “The selling volume is essentially non-existent,” he says, concluding that supply overhang has vaporized and only demand is needed to propel a reversal. Twice before—in July 2023 and February 2024—identical volume droughts preceded V-shaped rallies: “Low selling volume over here, reversal once volume comes in … low selling volume over here, reversal once volume comes in.” 📈

Daily-chart oscillators are beginning to corroborate the structural read. Dogecoin has just registered what Cantonese Cat labels a “treasure bottom”—a local capitulation with a small candle body and a long wick. The relative-strength index (RSI) has shown bullish divergence: price has etched lower lows while RSI turns higher. “Last time when you have some bullish divergences was right here … that was the local bottom right there,” he says, pointing to the October 2023 reversal. The pattern repeated in March 2024 and appears again today: “I think that we might be experiencing a trend change here relatively soon.” 🤔

Should volume arrive and price claw back through the 0.5 and 0.618 retracements, Cantonese Cat’s Fibonacci ladders flag successive targets. From the Binance dataset, “1.60, 2.26 and 4.13, all of these are possibilities for Dogecoin.” A composite feed of multiple exchanges tweaks the numbers to $1.50, $2.27, and $3.94. What he doesn’t foresee is a reprise of 2021’s parabolic blow-off, when Dogecoin briefly suggested a trajectory towards $23. “I think that $23 doge is insane … I don’t think that doge is going to end up becoming, you know, like anything like $3 trillion market cap.” A quarter- to half-trillion-dollar capitalization, however—roughly the price zone between three and four dollars—remains “something to think about” given current monetary expansion. 🤑

Cantonese Cat interprets the community’s malaise as a contrarian gift: “The market makers are giving us more time to buy while the sentiment is extremely, extremely poor.” Inside-bar ranges serve as a simple trigger. A close above the six-month range high would, in his reading, unlock the primary up-trend’s next leg. Conversely, a close below the 20-month average might delay—but not necessarily invalidate—the thesis, provided the moving average itself keeps rising. 📊

Across every lens—the macro cup-and-handle, the Adam-and-Eve neckline test, Ichimoku resistance, 20-month moving average support, volume exhaustion, daily bullish divergence—the weight of evidence converges on a bullish outcome. Timing, he concedes, is unknowable: “When is that going to be? I don’t know.” Yet none of the data justify capitulation. He closes with the maxim he repeats three times in the broadcast: “The trend is your friend, and the trend is up.” If that view holds, Dogecoin’s dormant coil may eventually unwind toward the analyst’s most ambitious extension at $4.13—a level unthinkable to today’s demoralized sellers, and precisely for that reason, still within reach. 🌟

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.171.

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2025-06-20 15:06