US Bitcoin Reserve Will Push Price Above $1 Million, Expert Predicts

by

As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience navigating the volatile and unpredictable world of digital assets, I must admit that Adam Back’s prediction of Bitcoin surging beyond $1 million per coin is certainly intriguing. However, my personal opinion leans towards a more cautious approach.

In a discussion about X, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, predicted that Bitcoin might reach values above $1 million if the United States were to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) under President-elect Donald Trump. Back suggested that “If the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve comes into play, get ready for Bitcoin prices in the seven figures. This cycle. The market is currently uncertain about significant action following through at this point, so it’s not yet reflected in the price.

If the United States establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve this cycle, it could potentially lead to Bitcoin prices reaching seven figures. However, due to skepticism in the market about significant continuation of this trend, the impact is not yet fully reflected in current prices.

— Adam Back (@adam3us) November 18, 2024

The bold prediction sparked discussions among industry experts and enthusiasts. James Van Straten, a noted crypto analyst, responded, “7 figures? I don’t think I’m mentally prepared for 6.” Acknowledging the market’s doubt, Back replied, “That’s a fairly big ‘if’ though. At least if we infer from market price, the market thinks a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is unlikely. If that becomes real, I’d expect a rapid repricing.”

Can Bitcoin Rise To $1 Million Per Coin?

As a crypto investor, I’ve been pondering about the doubts surrounding the possibility of the U.S. government accumulating a substantial amount of Bitcoin. Experts like Van Straten have proposed an interesting thought: if such a scenario were to unfold, nations might choose to “get ahead” of this development, a strategy often referred to as “front-running.” Back, in response, pointed out that acquiring a million Bitcoins quietly is challenging and, even then, if it becomes public knowledge, the entire world might experience a sudden surge of fear-of-missing-out (FOMO), causing the price to skyrocket instantly.

Through X, Portal – an interoperability protocol without custody for Bitcoin – expressed a thought: “If the United States launches one, it’s likely that other countries would also follow this trend, leading to a global impact on the adoption and value of Bitcoin.” This implies that a US-led SBR (Securities Based Ripple) could have far-reaching consequences for the acceptance and worth of Bitcoin worldwide.

User AndyLiteMan (@LiteAndy) expressed some reservations about Back’s astronomical forecast, commenting, “While it would be thrilling, I don’t think it will occur. This gets repeated every cycle.” However, Back stood firm on his claim, highlighting the contingency in his prediction: “I specified ‘if,’ and the market has yet to embrace this possibility.

In further developments, Dennis Porter, the CEO and founder of the Satoshi Act Fund – a U.S-based organization promoting Bitcoin usage – stated on November 18th that Donald Trump’s team is contemplating a executive order to initiate a national Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). As Bitcoinist reported, Porter hinted at this through X, saying, “I’ve been informed that the Trump team is considering an Executive Order for a National ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ to outpace any state from legislating it first.” He added, “I can verify that U.S Senate offices are endorsing this proposal. The game is on, President Trump. The competition has begun.

Involved extensively in the legislative aspects of Bitcoin acceptance, Porter pointed out that his data originates from confidential discussions with individuals knowledgeable about the subject, as well as his active role in propagating SBR terminology not only within the U.S., but also on a global scale.

It’s important to understand the differences between the ideas being presented. Porter mentions that Trump might issue an executive order to set up a National SBR (Stablecoins and Blockchain Regulatory Working Group), while Trump previously proposed creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, which would involve keeping any Bitcoins seized by law enforcement agencies.

To elaborate, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has put forward a proposal called the Bitcoin Act, suggesting that the U.S. government should acquire 1 million Bitcoins over a period of five years, with an annual allocation of 200,000 Bitcoins. In response to this legislative initiative, Back shared his thoughts on a Polymarket prediction market screenshot indicating a 36% likelihood for the question “Will Trump create a national Bitcoin reserve?” He explained that he finds this optimistic and subjective, as it could depend on the interpretation of what they mean. “Not selling seized coins” is significantly different from Senator Lummis’ SBR bill to purchase 1 million Bitcoins.

The latter could send the Bitcoin price skyrocketing. Back highlighted the logistical challenges of such a substantial acquisition: “There’s no good way to buy 1 million BTC other than very, very quietly. Even then, once it leaks, the entire world gets FOMO and a price teleport happens.”

At press time, BTC traded at $92,329.

Read More

2024-11-20 03:40