As a seasoned researcher with years of experience navigating the volatile and fascinating world of cryptocurrencies, I find myself intrigued by the performance of Ethereum in the wake of Bitcoin Halving events. My journey through the digital asset landscape has taught me that no two market trends are ever exactly alike, yet there seems to be a recurring bullish pattern in Q4 following halvings.
On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market, primarily driven by top players Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), rose to heights not reached in over a month, fueled by speculation about the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on reducing interest rates for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Regardless of how the Federal Reserve’s announcement may impact the market, traditionally, the fourth quarter (Q4) has historically shown a marked increase in bullish trends for both Bitcoin and the top digital assets, as well as the wider market.
Exploring The Ethereum Price Performance Post-Bitcoin Halving
It’s interesting to note that Ethereum’s behavior after previous Bitcoin Halving events has shown some significant differences. The data indicates that in the year following the 2016 Halving, Ethereum initially dropped by 45%, but then went on to surge, resulting in a massive increase of approximately 3,400%.
After the 2020 halving event, ETH experienced an impressive surge of approximately 150%, eventually escalating to a staggering 2,150% increase. However, since the most recent halving in April, ETH has begun showing similar patterns of volatility as Bitcoin, experiencing significant price swings and setting lower price floors for support.
Over the past month, Ethereum has experienced two major setbacks. On August 5th, ETH fell by more than 25%, reaching a six-month low of $2,110. The decline persisted into September, with a sharp drop from around $2,800 to roughly $2,150 in just one week due to heightened selling activity.
Despite these challenges, analyst CryptoBullet remains optimistic about Q4’s potential for a turnaround. Notably, the analyst identified a “triple bottom” formation on the ETH/USDT daily chart see in the image below, reminiscent of price action observed in 2021.
It looks like the current pattern could indicate a potential resurgence for Ethereum, much like its growth spurt in 2021 when it soared from around $1,650 to hit an all-time high of $4,730. However, at about $2,330 now, Ethereum is currently more than 52% lower than its previous all-time peak.
ETH Price Analysis
On Wednesday, it’s important to keep an eye on ETH‘s price fluctuations, considering the anticipated Fed rate cut. Notably, the $2,260 level has emerged as a significant support in the past week. This price could serve as a barrier, preventing a potential drop towards $2,200 or even a retest of the next substantial support at $2,100.
Positively speaking, right now, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) stands at approximately $2,350, acting as a significant hurdle for Ethereum. This level of resistance has been keeping Ethereum from attempting to revisit the $2,400 threshold in the short run.
If Ethereum (ETH) successfully breaches these resistance levels, optimistic investors will target the next significant resistance at approximately $2,520. Beyond this point, a crucial barrier can be found at around $2,620, where the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) resides. This level has not been surpassed since July of this year, when Ethereum’s price dipped below it, marking the beginning of the current downtrend.
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2024-09-18 07:16