As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I’ve witnessed numerous market cycles and have learned to navigate through them with cautious optimism. The current state of Bitcoin is indeed a complex puzzle, with bullish fundamentals colliding with bearish price action.
In simpler terms, the volatile Bitcoin market lately has sparked concerns about a possible cryptocurrency downturn in September. Even with promising underlying factors like strong showings from Bitcoin ETFs and changes in Russian regulations, Bitcoin’s price has been under sustained medium-term bearish influence.
On Tuesday, August 27, during the early trading session in New York, the primary cryptocurrency decreased by more than 2% and was valued around $62,384.
As a result, the overall value of the cryptocurrency market decreased by almost 4% over the past day, currently standing at approximately $2.28 trillion. Furthermore, the altcoin sector, spearheaded by Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), among others, experienced a significant drop in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin Price Path to at Least $100K by EOY
As reported by Jamie Coutts, Real Vision’s Chief Crypto Analyst, Bitcoin’s price appears to be moving into the parabolic phase of its long-term bull market, similar to past cycles. Mr. Coutts emphasized that various signs suggest a major surge could occur before year-end, possibly driving Bitcoin’s value up to around $150,000.
“If things continue as they are, we might be moving into a period that Raoul Pal calls the ‘banana zone’, which I’d simply call ‘Bitcoin’s unpredictable phase,’ as Coutts pointed out.”
A cryptocurrency expert noted that during its four-year pattern, Bitcoin’s price increase typically slows with each occurrence when the U.S. Dollar Index exhibits a declining trend. Remarkably, the U.S. Dollar Index has already shown signs of breakdown, currently hovering near 100.
In simpler terms, the expected change in the economy starting in September, due to the first reduction in interest rates as global funds increase, could significantly impact the positive outlook for Bitcoin prices.
Hindering Factors
As August winds down, there are signs suggesting a potential drop in Bitcoin’s price over the next few weeks, indicating a medium-term bearish trend. Typically, the period following the halving event in September has been historically bearish, followed by a broader cryptocurrency market uptrend towards the end of the year.
Given the circumstances, some investors who hold Bitcoin for a shorter period have sped up their selling to limit potential future losses.
According to CryptoQuant’s XBTmanager, there was a significant transfer of 33,155 bitcoins by short-term holders. This could potentially lead to immediate selling pressure. The recent price decrease hints that Bitcoin may be preparing for a temporary dip or correction.
In simpler terms, the latest approvals for Solana and Ethereum ETFs have increased the pace at which investors are moving their cryptocurrency holdings towards the altcoin market.
Due to recent developments, Bitcoin’s dominance appears to be shaping like a rising weekly wedge, along with bearish signals on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This pattern hints at a potential shift or reversal in the short term.
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2024-08-27 18:27