Spot On Chain: German Government Could Shift toward OTC Sales

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As an experienced financial analyst, I find the recent developments surrounding the German government’s Bitcoin transactions intriguing. The potential shift towards over-the-counter (OTC) sales is noteworthy, especially given their previous market impact through centralized exchanges.

As an on-chain analytics expert, I’ve recently noticed some significant Bitcoin transactions traced back to the German government through Spot On Chain’s platform. This discovery has ignited debates within the crypto community regarding a possible transition towards over-the-counter (OTC) sales by the German authorities.

The report reveals that the German government moved 19,521.7 BTC, equivalent to approximately $1.14 billion, to wallets believed to belong to market makers such as B2C2, Flow Traders, and Cumberland. This transfer could have been for an over-the-counter (OTC) deal. Later on, they received about 7,106 BTC back, or around $412 million, primarily from centralized exchanges at a lower price, hinting at a possible change in their approach. Currently, the German government holds 27,461 BTC, worth roughly $1.55 billion, leaving only about half of their initially planned Bitcoin holdings for sale on the market.

As an analyst, I’ve observed that large institutions often favor over-the-counter (OTC) trading to minimize market impact. However, the German government decided against this practice, which led to noticeable market instability and price declines. Now, Spot On Chain proposes that the German authorities might be recognizing the disadvantages of their earlier choice and are considering a shift towards directly engaging OTC market makers for sales.

Market Impact and Price Decline of Bitcoin Sell-Offs

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that Bitcoin’s price drop since June can be partially attributed to the German government selling off around $2 billion in Bitcoin they seized from Movie2k.to operators. This sell-off began on June 18, 2024. The price dipped below a crucial support level of $54,000 on July 5 but has since bounced back to $57,683.

Despite the German government’s transactions being small in comparison to Bitcoin’s daily trading volume of 36 billion dollars, they have had a substantial influence on market sentiment. Repeated media coverage of these transactions has amplified market unease, which could impact prices as market makers adjust their positions based on this information.

Spot On Chain’s Bitcoin Price Predictions

According to the latest Bitcoin price forecast from Spot On Chain, they’ve utilized Google Cloud’s Vertex AI for sophisticated modeling. In the upcoming months, roughly May to July 2024, Bitcoin’s value may oscillate between $56,000 and $70,000. This timeframe could witness significant price swings, with approximately a 48% chance of the price dipping below $60,000.

Moving forward to the second half of 2024, Spot On Chain predicts a optimistic trajectory for Bitcoin, with a 63% probability of its price reaching $100,000. This bullish perspective is reinforced by the expected rate reductions instigated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in December 2023. These rate cuts are intended to decrease the federal funds rate to 4.6%. The implementation of such monetary policy changes is believed to boost the appeal of high-risk assets like Bitcoin.

As we enter the first half of 2025, Spot On Chain anticipates a significant chance (42%) that Bitcoin will break through the $150,000 mark. This probability increases to 70% for the full year. These forecasts point towards a positive long-term perspective, fueled by emerging market tendencies and growing investor trust in Bitcoin as a valuable financial asset class.

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2024-07-09 13:56