As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade-long journey through the cryptocurrency markets, I find myself constantly reminded of the adage: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” The recent bearish trend in Ethereum has been a source of concern for many ETH investors, including myself. However, upon closer examination of its historical price movements, the current situation appears to be repeating a pattern we’ve seen before – one that harks back to 2016.
Over the last several months, the performance of Ethereum has fallen short of what traders had predicted, and it’s currently experiencing a bear market. In fact, over the past 30 days alone, its price has dropped by approximately 23%. This recent slump is surprising given the optimism many ETH investors felt after the introduction of Spot Ethereum ETFs, which they hoped would trigger a bullish rally.
In contrast, technical analysis indicates that Ethereum’s current behavior isn’t extraordinary for the cryptocurrency, since it seems to replicate a comparable trend noticed back in 2016.
Ethereum Maintains Similarities With 2016 Price Movements
Although some may have concerns about its price, a closer examination of Ethereum’s past price trends indicates that the current situation could be less unusual than it appears. According to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen’s ongoing analysis, Ethereum’s price behavior in 2024 resembles its pattern from 2016 when viewed on a monthly candlestick chart. This similarity becomes more noticeable after August 2024, as Ethereum closed on a bearish candle, just like it did in August 2016.
In isolation, it wouldn’t have held much significance. However, as Cowen has pointed out, this pattern has been persistent since January 2024, recurring every month for eight consecutive months. Remarkably, Ethereum has ended monthly candlesticks in a manner similar to its behavior in 2016. This consistency suggests that Ethereum’s trajectory for the remainder of the year might follow a pattern analogous to its 2016 performance.
#ETH / #USD monthly candles continue to track 2016 perfectly.
If it continues to play out, it would suggest #ETH is green in September, and then red Oct-Dec.
Then in 2025 #ETH turns green for a while
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 21, 2024
Starting in 2016, Ethereum experienced an incredible surge of nearly 19,000%, reaching a record high of $1,590 for the first time. If history repeats itself as it did back then, investors might expect Ethereum to end September with a positive monthly close. However, from October to December, there could be three consecutive months of bearish price action. If this trend continues beyond December 2024, Ethereum could see another significant rally that surpasses its current all-time high, bringing long-awaited profits to passionate Ethereum investors.
Road To $5,000?
As I type this, Ethereum is being sold for approximately $2,445. Over the last week, its value has dropped by 10.85%, and over the past month, it’s decreased by 23%. If its recent trend follows the path of 2016, Ethereum’s downward momentum could persist for the rest of the year. But, there’s still a possibility that Ethereum will rally again, as it’s now close to a significant support level that could cause an upward spike.
The price of Ethereum is currently at a vital point, which is around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, slightly above $2,400. If there’s a strong rebound from this position, it might indicate the beginning of an uptrend, potentially ending the month with a closing price above its current opening price by September’s end. Furthermore, if Ethereum surpasses $3,000, it may continue to rise towards $4,000 and possibly even reach $5,000 in the future.
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2024-09-03 06:40