Polymarket Whale Adds Another $2M in Pro-Trump Bets, Boosting His Election Odds to 67%

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As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in financial markets and politics, I find myself intrigued by this recent development involving cryptocurrencies and the upcoming U.S. election. The mysterious crypto whale “zxgngl” pouring millions into Pro-Trump bets on Polymarket is indeed a fascinating turn of events.

In the upcoming November 5 election, Donald Trump, a former U.S. President seeking another term in office, has garnered considerable backing from cryptocurrency enthusiasts. As per Polymarket, a prediction market built on blockchain technology, an anonymous crypto investor labeled “zxgngl” has invested around $2 million in USD Coin (USDC) to support pro-Trump wagers, thereby boosting Trump’s chances to nearly 67%.

Rising Support for Trump on Polymarket

A secretive financier has supported Donald Trump ever since he declared his intention to run against then-Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, who later yielded the nomination to Vice President Kamala Harris following a heated debate in June.

Today, Lookonchain, a blockchain intelligence firm, disclosed that the entity “zxgngl” invested around $7.22 million in USDC shares of the company “Yes”, based on the assumption of Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024, starting from October 11, 2024. This investment currently stands to gain approximately $256,000.

According to Polymarket’s data, a whale owns approximately 11.2 million shares and ranks among the top three with the most “Yes” votes.

A significant increase in Trump’s chances has occurred after an anonymous cryptocurrency investor, referred to as “Fredi9999,” made a $20 million investment. This move has boosted Trump’s odds to about 60.2%, as seen on October 18.

Fredi9999’s $20 million investment significantly boosted the chances of “zxgngl,” helping it advance to the current 67% probability.

Dominating the Odds

Despite both these whales expressing strong backing for Trump’s candidacy, data from Polymarket indicates that the whale operating the account manages four out of the top six pro-Trump digital wallets on the prediction marketplace.

According to reports, the four accounts belonging to Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie were funded through the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken. Deposits ranged from approximately $1 million to $500,000. Collectively, these accounts have made wagers totaling around $45 million on Donald Trump winning the November election.

Recently, Polymarket disclosed that the person behind this high-stakes operation is a “French national with significant trading experience and a background in financial services”.

Election Anticipation Fuels Prediction Market Surge

In recent times, there’s been a notable increase in investor enthusiasm for prediction markets, particularly as the US elections approach. The trading activity on the top three platforms skyrocketed by an impressive 565.4% during the third quarter of this year, amounting to a substantial $3.1 billion, marking a significant jump from the $463.3 million recorded in the preceding quarter.

As an analyst, I’ve observed a remarkable surge in growth within the decentralized betting sector, a trend that appears to be primarily influenced by election-related activities. Notably, Polymarket, a prominent player in this field, has solidified its dominance, holding over 99% of the market share as of September.

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2024-10-28 17:58