PlanB Reaffirms Bullish Stance for Bitcoin Based on Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model

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As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience navigating the volatile waters of this dynamic market, I have learned to stay patient and adaptable through every cycle. The ongoing bearish trend of Bitcoin (BTC) since March has been challenging, but my faith remains unshaken.

Global acceptance of cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading the charge, has persisted despite a decline in its value since March. Yet, some technical and fundamental analyses indicate that BTC’s price may surge to a record-breaking peak (new all-time high or ATH) before 2021 concludes.

As a crypto analyst, I find myself aligning with the views of PlanB, who’s renowned for his stock-to-flow (S2F) model that successfully predicted Bitcoin’s price movements during the 2021 cycle. Even though we’re currently experiencing some choppy trends in the market, my analysis suggests that we are still within a larger macro bull market for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is still in a bull market!My market analysis 👉

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) August 8, 2024

Rising Bitcoin Demand

Globally, the adoption of Bitcoin has experienced a notable surge following the approval of spot BTC ETFs in the U.S. and other regions this year. Notable institutional investors like MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) and Metaplanet Inc are progressively incorporating Bitcoin into their investment strategies to strengthen their portfolio diversity and financial structures.

In recent months, data from blockchain shows that institutional investors holding over 1,000 Bitcoins (excluding exchanges and miners) have been buying Bitcoin at a rapid pace. For example, long-term Bitcoin holders have amassed approximately 184,500 additional coins in the last few weeks, even amidst market volatility.

Institutions are buying up #Bitcoin

Meanwhile retail is scared or sleeping

— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) August 8, 2024

As an analyst, I’m observing that as of now, US-based Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), notably BlackRock’s IBIT, collectively hold approximately $50 billion in Bitcoin coins. Yesterday, these ETFs added roughly $45 million in Bitcoin. Interestingly, Bitcoin miners received half of the equivalent value in mining rewards for the Bitcoin they mined and sold on the same day.

It’s worth mentioning that the hash rate of Bitcoin has reached a record peak since a drop after the fourth halving, which made mining more challenging. This event has led to a surge in the number of miners participating in the Bitcoin network, thereby enhancing its security to unprecedented levels.

Midterm BTC Price Expectations

Technically speaking, Bitcoin’s price has been holding steady within an upward trend known as a “bullish flag” over the past five months. This pattern suggests a significant surge could be imminent soon. Previously, as Coinspeaker pointed out, this current price adjustment bears resemblance to the period following the halving in 2015-2017, which was followed by a robust bull cycle.

Furthermore, certain analysts have drawn parallels between the latest Bitcoin plunge to around $49,000 and the 2020’s Black Thursday, which was triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19.

Predicting a continuation of subdued conditions for Bitcoin and the crypto market through August and September, there’s optimism that a strong upswing might occur in October and November, possibly propelling Bitcoin’s value to reach around $100,000.

It’s forecasted that the Bitcoin market will start losing strength and shift towards the altcoin sector, marking the arrival of the long-awaited “altseason.” Currently, Bitcoin’s dominance has climbed to a significant resistance level above 57%, and the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a likely reversal in the near future.

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2024-08-08 15:17