As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of market analysis under my belt, I find myself closely monitoring the interplay between politics and cryptocurrencies, especially as we approach the US presidential election. My experiences have taught me that the dynamics of these two realms can significantly influence each other, often in ways that are both fascinating and unpredictable.
As the United States presidential election draws near, the chances of former President Donald Trump on cryptocurrency wagering sites such as Polymarket have increased noticeably. Experts are anticipating substantial effects on Bitcoin prices should Trump win another term and take up residence in the White House once more.
Nevertheless, market analyst Patrick H. cautions that the factors currently boosting Bitcoin’s surge towards a fresh peak could significantly change due to Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies for the upcoming year.
‘No Money Printing, No Gains’
In a recent discussion on platform X, previously known as Twitter, Patrick H. suggested that should Trump win the election again and appoint Elon Musk as the leader of the proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), it might signal the demise of excessive monetary printing.
During a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, the Tesla CEO revealed plans for the DOGE initiative, suggesting it could reduce federal spending by at least $2 trillion.
Patrick H. argues that without continued money printing, there may be limited upward movement in Bitcoin prices. “No money printing, no price going up,” he stated.
An expert’s view is that the impact of a Trump presidency in 2025 might not be fully reflected yet in the forecasts for both the cryptocurrency and stock markets, according to their analysis.
Furthermore, Patrick voiced apprehensions concerning potential impacts on the Bank of Japan due to the possible implementation of Trump’s policies in the US stock market. He predicted that such actions might trigger an “economic shock” in 2025, making it more challenging for cryptocurrency prices to navigate the ensuing complex landscape.
The Bitcoin Rally And The Potential Impact For Altcoins
Investment expert Miles Deutscher has observed an unusual calmness in the Bitcoin market, even though its price is close to record highs. He suggests that this quiet atmosphere could be due to low involvement from individual investors, who he believes are key to fueling the pace of the cryptocurrency market.
Between October 2023 and March 2024, altcoins witnessed substantial surges, as many coins quadrupled or quintupled from their lowest points. Notably, digital currencies in popular sectors like artificial intelligence and meme coins observed gains of up to ten to fifteen times during this stretch.
Instead, it’s worth noting that retail interest resurfaced only in February, a point underscored by indicators such as Google Trends, app store ratings, and YouTube view counts.
As a researcher delving into the intricacies of cryptocurrency markets, I find Deutscher’s observation particularly insightful: it seems that significant price fluctuations in digital currencies can happen without immediate involvement from retail investors.
As per the analysis, it’s found that about 8 out of every 10 benefits usually happen during the last one-fifth of a price change. This implies that many individual investors often join the market once a strong upward trend has already started, which could point towards more potential price increases in the upcoming months.
In the present situation, the surge of altcoins over the past month comes after a six-month decline. Previously, as German points out, it took around five months for individual investors to recognize the market’s rebound during the last cycle.
As an analyst, I anticipate a pattern that mirrors the past may recur, yet I’m optimistic that the trust established during the March rally could potentially shrink the timeline for renewed retail engagement in Bitcoin. However, it’s crucial to note that if Bitcoin surpasses its previous all-time highs, it would significantly boost the marketing efforts for the entire cryptocurrency sector.
In essence, the analyst suggests that the surge in Bitcoin’s value (the “Bitcoin rally”) will most probably trigger an increase in the prices of other cryptocurrencies (altcoins), causing a chain reaction of growth across the entire crypto market.
Currently, as I’m typing this, the biggest cryptocurrency on the market has successfully bounced back to around $72,000 following a minor dip to approximately $71,400 over the last day.
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2024-10-30 22:35