How To Trade Bitcoin During The US Election, Expert Reveals

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As a seasoned researcher with a knack for deciphering market trends and a penchant for understanding the intricacies of politics and finance, I find myself captivated by the insights shared by Alex Krüger. His strategic framework for trading Bitcoin during the US election period is nothing short of remarkable. With my experience in navigating the volatile world of cryptocurrencies and my understanding of the unpredictable nature of American politics, I can’t help but feel a sense of anticipation and excitement as we approach November 5, 2024.

With the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November 5, 2024, the Bitcoin market is preparing for potential turbulence. As speculation about a possible win by former President Donald Trump grew, Bitcoin reached a peak of $73,620 on Tuesday. Yet, as the election drew nearer and investors became more cautious, the price of Bitcoin adjusted to $68,830 by Friday.

How To Trade Bitcoin During US Election

Alex Krüger, an Argentine economist and well-known cryptocurrency analyst, recently disclosed his trading strategy for Bitcoin during the US election season through his X account. Krüger outlined various scenarios based on potential election results, suggesting that a Trump victory could drive Bitcoin’s price up to $90,000 by year-end with approximately a 55% chance, while a win for Vice President Kamala Harris might result in Bitcoin stabilizing around $65,000 with roughly a 45% probability. He underscored the importance of timing: “If Trump wins, expect the price movement to be swift, as markets tend not to wait for latecomers when it comes to binary events that are heavily anticipated.

Krüger additionally mentioned that the predicted Bitcoin price, estimated to be between $65k and $68k prior to Election Day, had surged beyond expectation due to the increased likelihood of a Trump win. He emphasized the unpredictability surrounding the election outcomes, particularly the Pennsylvania vote tally, which could cause a delay in declaring a definitive winner.

According to Krüger, whether the results come quickly or take several days depends on how evenly distributed the votes are in Pennsylvania. If the distribution is uneven, he suggests we might know the outcome as early as Tuesday evening Eastern Standard Time. However, if the vote is very close, it could take days for clarity. The quicker we have a definitive answer, the easier it will be to understand the situation.

Concerning market sentiment, Krüger predicted a positive stance toward stocks even after the election, with the exception of a surprise scenario called the “Blue sweep” in which Democrats win both the presidency and control of Congress. He clarified that stocks tend to influence Bitcoin’s performance.

In discussing his investment approach, Krüger disclosed that he currently holds long positions in Bitcoin and Nvidia, and intends to acquire more Solana (SOL) if Trump secures victory. This suggests that he anticipates approval of a Solana Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the U.S. markets.

The markets seem to have taken into account the possibility of a Trump win. In other words, many investors believe that a Trump administration might bring more clarity to regulations and favorable policies for cryptocurrencies, potentially leading to an increase in Bitcoin’s price.

Furthermore, he anticipates that Trump’s emphasis on higher government spending might boost temporary economic expansion, which could in turn benefit the stock market – an area that significantly influences Bitcoin’s value.

In my analysis, if Harris emerges victorious, we can anticipate a continuation of current policies, unless there’s a substantial Democratic sweep. According to betting markets and various forecasting models, Trump’s chances of winning are estimated between 50% and 63%. This suggests that a Republican victory is not yet fully reflected in the market prices. Such a situation is typical before elections, which is why I don’t expect a ‘sell the news’ scenario to materialize.

At press time, BTC traded at $70,402.

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2024-11-02 00:40