As a seasoned analyst with over a decade of experience in the cryptocurrency market, I find myself constantly intrigued by the dynamic nature of Bitcoin and its community. The latest analysis from Onchained on CryptoQuant QuickTake has caught my attention, as it provides valuable insights into the current state of the market.
Anticipation among Bitcoin enthusiasts has been high for the onset of a fresh bull market, particularly post-April’s halving event. However, as per the latest assessment by an analyst going by the alias Onchained from CryptoQuant, this pivotal moment hasn’t transpired just yet, and there’s a compelling explanation behind it.
The article published on the CryptoQuant QuickTake site highlights an examination by Onchained centering around the Mourad Ratio for Long-Term Holders (LTH), a unique tool that monitors transactions outputs not spent within the past 6 months.
This proportion essentially measures the feelings of the market and long-term trends in Bitcoin accumulation by dedicated investors. It provides useful information about potential timings for Bitcoin to start its next period of growth.
Stability In The Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio
As a researcher, one crucial metric I’ve found to be insightful is the Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio. In the past, when this ratio maintains its stability, it often implies that the market has not yet built enough momentum for a substantial bullish trend, indicating potential consolidation or even a bearish phase ahead.
In simpler terms, Onchained stated that a bull market usually kicks off when the ratio moves below its normal or stable values. At present, the Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio appears to be holding steady, suggesting that Bitcoin’s bullish trend has not started just yet.
The consistency in the ratio, as observed by the analyst, suggests that large-scale investors have yet to significantly influence market prices. Patience might be required from investors, waiting for more advantageous circumstances to present themselves.
To provide more background, the Mourad Ratio is determined by taking the Long-Term Holder Mourad Current Transaction Value (LTH MCTV) and dividing it by the present value of Bitcoin.
By performing this calculation, we can understand the typical worth of Bitcoin (BTC) held for more than half a year, offering a more defined perspective on how long-term investors have been amassing their coins recently.
Technicals Suggests Bitcoin Bull Run Is Not So Far
As a researcher, I’ve found that on-chain analysis suggests that the Bitcoin bull run hasn’t commenced yet, but I’ve also noticed that some analysts are looking to historical price charts as a technical indicator to predict when this bull run might begin for BTC.
The well-known Bitcoin analysis platform, Bitcoin Archive, has pointed out that BTC could be about to make a “positive crossover” on its 5-day graph for the first time in approximately 230 days.
Based on data from Bitcoin Archive, if history repeats, a potential increase of around 75-80% could occur again for BTC. If so, Bitcoin might climb above the $100,000 mark.
Bitcoin MACD about to make a bullish cross-over on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.
Last 2x Bitcoin went up 79% and 74%.
#Bitcoin will surge OVER $100K if this repeated.
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) September 25, 2024
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2024-09-26 15:04