Ethereum Breaks $4,000, Teases Parabolic Run: Can ETH Hit $5,316 Next?

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As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for spotting trends and analyzing market patterns, I find myself quite optimistic about Ethereum‘s current performance. The $4,000 breakout is more than just a milestone; it’s a testament to the resilience of this digital asset in the ever-changing crypto landscape.

As an analyst, I find myself observing Ethereum (ETH) once more, breaking through the $4,000 mark and reclaiming a crucial milestone. This resurgence has stirred excitement in the market, suggesting a potential push towards a fresh 52-week high. With a current market cap of approximately $483 million, the volatility over the past 24 hours stands at around 1.6%, while the total volume within this period amounts to a substantial $44.10 billion.

Among Ethereum investors, there’s a growing sense of optimism due to the market’s ongoing recovery. The question on everyone’s mind is: Will this recovery momentum, currently pushing past the $4,000 threshold, eventually surge towards the predicted level of $5,316?

Ethereum Crossing $4,000 Teases New Breakout Run

Ethereum is attempting to surpass the 100% Fibonacci mark, currently standing at approximately $4,093, for the third day in a row on its daily chart. This attempt represents a potential new peak in its 52-week high, suggesting the possibility of an escalating rally ahead.

Right now, the upward trajectory of Ethereum’s price appears to be gaining strength, suggesting a successful breakout from its downward trending channel, which is generating optimism among investors.

As the recovery run continues, the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are getting ready to cross over each other in a potentially bullish manner. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal lines appear about to re-establish a positive relationship.

Therefore, the technical indicators seem set to trigger a buy signal, while the price movement indicates a possible all-time high within the past year.

According to Fibonacci predictions, Ethereum may experience a strong surge towards a new 52-week high due to its momentum. This surge could potentially peak at around $5,316 – a level derived from the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio. However, before reaching that peak, there might be a minor hurdle or resistance at approximately $4,631, which corresponds to the 1.272 Fibonacci level. This could serve as a temporary stop on Ethereum’s journey towards its potential high-momentum rally.

Instead, if we see a bearish reversal, it’s probable that there will be a significant drop, which might lead the price to around $3,600 by the end of 2024.

The Rising Channel in 4-Hour Focuses Short-term Target at $4,317

In simpler terms, the Ethereum price graph over a four-hour period demonstrates an upward channel formation that is guiding the Ethereum trend. This trend suggests a growing positive cycle for Ethereum, as it gains strength while moving along this channel.

Approaching the significant psychological price point of around $4,137, Ethereum is steadily moving forward. After bouncing back from the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) line, its upward trend reduces the possibility of a bearish intersection between the 50-day and 100-day SMA lines.

Given the upward slope of the rising channel pattern, it appears that the ongoing uptrend could extend to the resistance trend line overhead, close to the R2 pivot point at approximately $4,317. This suggests a short-term increase in the value of ETH, potentially offering a 8-10% gain.

From my perspective as a crypto investor, should we experience a bearish shift, there’s a possibility of dipping below the $4,000 psychological level, potentially leading us back to around $3,829.

Ethereum ETFs Inflows Hit $51.3M

As an analyst, I’ve noticed a significant increase in investments into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF, with a record daily net inflow of approximately $6.39 billion yesterday. Meanwhile, the trend for U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs remains positive as well. On December 16 alone, these ETFs saw a daily net inflow of around $51.13 million, fueling a bullish momentum.

BlackRock bought approximately $30.72 million in Ethereum, making it the largest buyer, with Bitwise being the second-largest purchaser, adding $8.73 million. Since November 22, Ethereum ETFs have consistently seen a daily net increase, recording a positive flow for 16 consecutive days.

For approximately three weeks now, Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have seen an accumulated investment of around $220 million. Currently, their combined net assets amount to $14.28 billion, indicating a significant increase in institutional backing for Ethereum as the bull market commences.

Will the Long-term Holders Turn Greedy?

Analyst Martinez Ali recently pointed out a pattern seen in the last two market upswings that suggests Ethereum could experience a bullish rebound. In his latest post, Ali noted that Ethereum’s price surged in a steep upward trend when the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of long-term holders reached “greed” levels.

Previously, during the last two upward trends for Ethereum ($ETH), a dramatic increase occurred once long-term investors transitioned from fear to greed. Currently, these investors are merely starting the process of developing conviction (belief phase). Therefore, the significant surge might still be on the horizon!

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 17, 2024

In 2021 and 2017, there were bullish markets. At present, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of long-term Ethereum holders falls within the ‘confidence’ range, indicating potential for growth. If the price of Ethereum surpasses its yearly high again, the NUPL of long-term holders might move into the ‘excitement’ zone, which could lead to another dramatic surge in Ethereum prices.

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2024-12-17 13:56