As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in various financial markets, I have learned to navigate through the ebb and flow of market cycles with caution and patience. The recent Bitcoin price crash below $60,000 has undeniably stirred concerns about the short-term prospects of BTC reaching a new all-time high. However, based on my understanding of the dynamics at play, I share the long-term optimism expressed by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young.
After the Bitcoin price dropped below $60,000, it appears that the short-term aspirations for a new record high have been dashed. Nevertheless, analysts maintain an optimistic outlook over the long term, predicting that Bitcoin’s value will eventually recover. One such believer is CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young, who anticipates that the Bitcoin price will reach another all-time high; however, there are conditions for this rally to occur.
Bitcoin Price Must Hold $45,000
In a recent post on what used to be Twitter, Ki Young, CEO of CryptoQuant, shared that despite the recent drop in Bitcoin’s price, it still appears to be trending upwards. The critical point to watch is the $45,000 mark, as whether this level holds or not will significantly influence whether the bearish trend persists or if Bitcoin surges towards a fresh record high.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the minimum price for mining a single Bitcoin is currently at around $43,000 due to the costs associated with the mining process. So, if the price of Bitcoin remains above $45,000, miners are still earning profits from any newly-mined Bitcoins.
If Bitcoin’s price drops below $45,000, it would approach the point where mining a single Bitcoin becomes financially risky. A continued decrease could even push the price below $43,000, making Bitcoin mining unprofitable for many miners, which might also impact the overall hash rate.
The CEO acknowledges that certain indicators are suggesting a downward trend for Bitcoin’s value. Yet, he is optimistic that if Bitcoin manages to hold the $45,000 mark steadily over the next fortnight without experiencing a dip, there might be an upturn coming. Under such circumstances, he anticipates that the Bitcoin price could set a new record high before the end of 2024.
Bearish Signal Not Seen Since 2023 Returns
The comment that the CryptoQuant CEO replied to came from Julio Moreno, who serves as the Head of Research at CryptoQuant. In this post, Moreno expressed a pessimistic view, pointing out an unusual bearish indicator that hadn’t surfaced for over a year.
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator functions to suggest a potential resurgence of a bear market. As the researcher notes, this indicator showed bearish signs during the COVID market drop in 2020. Given its past behavior, it’s possible that both the Bitcoin and crypto markets might be preparing for an extended period of bearish conditions, implying that the current market downturn may not yet have reached its end.
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2024-08-08 19:16