‘Crypto Has Already Won’, Regardless Of Trump Or Harris Win: Bitwise CIO

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As an analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial industry, I find Matt Hougan’s perspective on the crypto market to be both insightful and convincing. His statement, “Crypto Has Already Won,” resonates deeply with me, given the remarkable growth and resilience of the sector even amidst regulatory challenges and uncertainties.

Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, asserted in a recent investor note that the crypto industry has already established its presence within the financial sector, regardless of the result of tomorrow’s US presidential election between President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. In his note titled “Crypto Has Already Triumphed,” Hougan emphasized, “There is no more to discuss about Tuesday’s election.

He provided a succinct assessment for investors: “Short-term, a Trump victory is better than a Harris victory. Long-term, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins will thrive regardless of who wins. Altcoins have more regulatory risk in a Harris regime than a Trump regime.” Hougan cautioned that the only unfavorable scenario for crypto would be a Democratic sweep. “It would embolden the fringe element of the Democratic Party that is overtly hostile to crypto. But even in that scenario, I’d buy the dip,” he wrote.

Looking back at the industry’s strength over the last four years, Hougan highlighted, “From what I’ve learned during this period, one thing is clear: Cryptocurrency is not halted by Washington. Instead, it can influence the path of its progress. It has the power to accelerate or decelerate developments, introduce more complexities or bring new understanding. However, it cannot prevent its advancement.

Based on Bitwise CIO’s statement, the presidential election presents an opportunity to assess the advancement of the crypto sector since November 2020. Despite facing a challenging regulatory landscape with initiatives like “Operation Choke Point 2.0,” numerous SEC lawsuits, and unclear or conflicting statements, the strides made are impressive. Hougan emphasized that while we often get caught up in the short-term fluctuations of crypto prices, it’s essential to consider the broader trends over time. He suggested that the presidential election offers a good chance to take a step back and appreciate how far the sector has come.

‘Crypto Has Already Won’

He presented compelling statistics comparing November 2020 to November 2024. Bitcoin’s price increased from $13,677 to $69,492, a 408% rise. Ethereum went from $388 to $2,492, marking a 552% increase. Solana experienced a meteoric rise from $1.49 to $165.12, an increase of 10,982%.

The trading volume for CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest saw a significant rise in October, increasing from approximately $0.57 billion to a staggering $10.58 billion – that’s a whopping 1,756% jump. On the other hand, the seven-day moving average of daily crypto exchange volume also experienced a substantial growth, climbing from $9.68 billion to $39.32 billion – representing a 306% increase. Lastly, the volume traded on decentralized exchanges skyrocketed in October, leaping from $12.6 billion to an astounding $156.5 billion, signifying a remarkable 11,142% surge.

Management of assets experienced substantial expansion. Specifically, the Bitcoin spot ETF’s managed assets, which were zero in November 2020, soared to an impressive $71.46 billion by November 2024. Moreover, stablecoin assets under management skyrocketed from $3.87 billion to a staggering $177.83 billion, representing a monumental increase of over 4,495%. Lastly, the total value locked in decentralized finance platforms surged from $9.57 billion to $139.3 billion, marking a significant growth of approximately 1,356% within the same period.

The level of activity within the network significantly escalated too. The number of Bitcoin transactions per month climbed from 9.28 million to 20.48 million, representing a significant 121% jump. Meanwhile, the monthly transactions involving Ethereum and Layer 2 solutions experienced an enormous surge, moving from 33.3 million to 385.8 million – a staggering 1,059% increase.

Indicators of mainstream acceptance suggest that cryptocurrency has become more integrated into traditional finance and political systems. For instance, the number of top 20 asset managers managing tokenized funds grew from zero in 2020 to three by 2024. One of the most notable developments in this space was BlackRock’s inclusion of Bitcoin and Ethereum in their portfolio, a move that did not exist in 2020 but became a significant event in 2024.

Given the data presented, Hougan showed great optimism that the favorable patterns would persist. In other words, when considering the numbers before you, he believes the answer is an emphatic ‘yes’.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been keeping tabs on several anticipated developments:

Despite acknowledging the election’s importance, Hougan emphasized that its influence on Bitcoin’s and cryptocurrency’s future course would likely be minimal. In his words: “It’s crucial to understand that Tuesday’s election results will have a significant impact in the short term. However, over an extended period, I believe Tuesday’s events will be seen more as a minor obstacle or a brief gust of wind rather than something that will derail the ongoing progress.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,932.

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2024-11-05 23:46