Crypto and US Stock Correlation at Record High

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As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade of experience under my belt, I can confidently say that the recent correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stocks has been nothing short of astonishing. It’s like watching two long-lost friends reunite, each mirroring the other’s every move. The 40-day correlation coefficient gauge of about 0.67 between the top 100 crypto assets and the S&P 500 Index is a testament to this newfound camaraderie.

The relationship between cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks is historically strong. A recent analysis indicates that these two markets are often following the same path, implying that the same economic factors influencing stocks may also be impacting the cryptocurrency market.

US Federal Reserve Interest Cut Impact on Crypto and Stock

In simpler terms, the connection between the top 100 cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 Index, as measured by a statistical gauge called the 40-day correlation coefficient, is approximately 0.67. Interestingly, this level was higher, reaching 0.72 in Q2 of 2022, according to data from Bloomberg. When the correlation coefficient reaches 1, it means the assets are perfectly aligned, while a reading of -1 indicates they move in opposite directions.

Over the past seven days, there’s been a rollercoaster of thrilling events in both conventional finance and DeFi. Notably, during the FOMC gathering held on September 18, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to lower interest rates by half a percent.

In response to recent developments, Bitcoin‘s price has climbed above $64,000, reaching a current value of $63,518.59, marking an increase of 0.84% over the past 24 hours. This surge is reminiscent of several US stocks that have also reached new highs due to news about monetary easing. Interestingly, these same stocks had been suffering losses prior to this, particularly following the first US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Approximately a week before the Fed’s announcement, these stocks started showing signs of growth. Specifically, Coinbase Global Inc.’s (NASDAQ: COIN) shares saw a 5.3% increase and returned to their original pre-debate price of $157.

Additionally, shares of MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) initially dipped below $125, but subsequently spiked up to around $129.

More Economic Data Could Push BTC Above $71K

This new occurrence emphasizes the connection between the economic trends in the U.S. and market expectations. By examining current data, traders might predict the potential magnitude and speed of future interest rate adjustments by observing shifts in borrowing costs. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets – a company offering liquidity for trading digital asset derivative markets – pointed out that:

Currently, major trends (or ‘macro factors’) are influencing cryptocurrency prices. This trend is expected to persist during the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy period, unless an unexpected and significant event specific to cryptocurrencies occurs.

This upcoming week marks the unveiling of fresh economic statistics, featuring insights from Federal Reserve representatives. Notably, the inflation rate that the central bank closely monitors is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Consequently, this revelation could potentially boost momentum in both traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi) markets.

According to several analysts, Bitcoin could be preparing for a significant price surge soon, as it has been stuck in a consolidation phase over the past six months. Currently, the Bitcoin price is hovering near a notable resistance level of approximately $64,200, which aligns with its 200-day Moving Average (MA). If the price consistently closes above both the 200-day MA and $64,000 in the upcoming weeks, it may trigger an upward trend towards $71,000.

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2024-09-23 13:03