On January 14th, well-known cryptocurrency expert Miles Deutscher made a surprising prediction about the ongoing discussion on altcoin season in several posts. His insights sparked interest among crypto analysts because they seemed to contradict rather than support the long-held belief that there would be another altcoin boom like the one seen in 2021.
RIP Crypto Altcoin Season?
Deutscher initiated his post by recognizing the revived debate among cryptocurrency enthusiasts about whether another “altcoin boom” might occur. He clarified that there are two possible understandings of the term ‘altcoin season’. “Could there be another ‘altcoin season’? I see a lot of discussion about this on Twitter,” Deutscher mentioned. “Firstly, whether there will be an ‘altcoin season’ depends on your perspective of the term. If you mean a surge in the altcoin index, then yes, I anticipate it to increase at some point this year.
Although he warned that repeating the prolonged, upward trend seen in 2021 is extremely improbable, he emphasized that ‘anticipating’ such a situation would be unwise because the specific blend of QE/stimulus and rapid equity repricing that occurred then is highly unusual and difficult to recreate. In other words, it’s risky to rely on this happening again. The crucial word here: ‘anticipating.’
Deutscher’s primary recommendation emphasizes adaptability and readiness over counting on prolonged bullish phases. He encourages cashing out during what he anticipates to be brief shifts towards altcoins, although he acknowledges the potential for an unexpected surge: “If a significant ‘altcoin season’ does occur, that’s beneficial. It simplifies our work, and recklessness won’t be severely penalized as much. Approach these rotations into altcoins with the understanding that they could be brief (this encourages you to book profits). It might not actually be brief, but at least you’re securing profits.
In my research, I advocate for cautious approaches that focus on “multiple short-term cycles or pockets of exceptional performance within a narrative,” emphasizing the need to avoid expecting another repeat of the 2021 market conditions. My recommendations center around intelligent portfolio construction and active trading: “Rather than having a broad and diverse portfolio, opt for a more focused collection of high-confidence assets. Balance these holdings with the readiness to engage in profitable markets (such as AI) – however, view these as trading opportunities, not long-term investments.
German’s remarks were made following crypto influencer Ansem’s claim: “There will be no alt season again. There will always be pockets of exceptional performance, as people move along the risk curve in a cyclical fashion, but never to the same extent as before. What is the true reason that BTC can’t continue to rise and trend upward for a decade straight?
Though analysts suggest that another altcoin boom similar to 2021 might be improbable, they point out that there are still profitable chances within this bull market. As Deutscher summarizes, “Certain assets or sectors will experience remarkable growth when the right conditions arise. Rather than spreading investments across a wide range of assets, it’s beneficial to focus on a more targeted collection of high-confidence investments.
At press time, total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) stood at $1.34 trillion.
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2025-01-14 23:11