As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I’ve seen my fair share of market cycles and trends. Observing Bitcoin’s current situation, it seems we’re in a consolidation phase after a failed attempt at breaching the coveted $100K mark. However, the resistance range between $98.7K and $99.6K is not unfamiliar territory for Bitcoin; it has often served as a barrier before a potential correction and subsequent bullish continuation.
Over the past fortnight, Bitcoin‘s price has been consolidating after failing to surpass the anticipated psychological level of around $100,000. As a result, it’s exhibiting notable resistance within the range of approximately $98,700 – $99,600, suggesting that a possible correction might occur before any potential future bullish momentum.
Over the span of four hours, there’s been a possibility that Bitcoin’s price relative to the U.S. dollar is shaping up as a potential reversal pattern. Looking at it from a technical viewpoint, Bitcoin’s price might be developing a double top, and there’s a short-term bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
As per well-known crypto expert Michaël van de Poppe’s analysis, it appears that Bitcoin’s price could fall back towards a supportive zone between roughly $85,300 and $89,500. Yet, if Bitcoin manages to overcome the resistance level above $98,000, we might see its price surpassing $100,000 over the next few weeks. The next significant goal in this scenario would be approximately $106k, which aligns with the daily 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
Bitcoin Whales Continues to Accumulate
As per the recent market figures from CoinGlass, there’s been a decrease of approximately 123,108 Bitcoin units on centralized exchanges over the past month. This reduction has left the total supply hovering around 2.27 million. The trend suggests an increase in institutional investment, with more investors viewing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve to protect against inflation and potential devaluations of fiat currencies.
On Monday, MicroStrategy Inc (traded as COIN on NASDAQ) disclosed their purchase of 15,400 Bitcoins, valued at over $1.5 billion. Simultaneously, MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA), a prominent Bitcoin mining company, unveiled the terms for issuing $850 million in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031.
On Monday, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the way, saw approximately $354 million in cash inflows collectively. As the U.S. considers establishing a strategic reserve for Bitcoin, data analysis from IntoTheBlock indicates that long-term holders are decreasing their Bitcoin balances at a slower pace compared to previous bull markets.
Long-term Bitcoin owners have been steadily decreasing the amount they hold, currently possessing approximately 12.45 million Bitcoins – a figure not seen since July of last year.
To put it simply, the current decrease isn’t as drastic as we’ve seen in previous periods. In contrast to a drop of 15% last year and a more significant 26% at an unspecified time, long-term holder balances have only decreased by 9.8% during this cycle.
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) December 3, 2024
Altseason Reckoning
With Bitcoin’s price finding it difficult to sustain its early bullish surge following the re-election of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, the altcoin market has seen an increase in investor interest. As reported by Coinspeaker, the ascension of Ripple Labs-supported XRP to become the third most valuable cryptocurrency has sparked a wave of FOMO traders entering the market.
As a researcher delving into the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies, I’ve learned that it’s crucial to remain vigilant when observing altcoins with significant adoption rates. The reason being, not every coin destined for greatness will necessarily outshine others. Additionally, recent developments such as the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin layer two solutions (L2), and strategic Bitcoin reserves by institutional investors have significantly reduced the flow of crypto capital from Bitcoin to altcoins.
Therefore, it’s crucial for investors to pay close attention to cryptocurrency initiatives showing significant funds coming from the stablecoin market and Bitcoin wrapping platforms.
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2024-12-03 15:44