As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in financial markets and a keen interest in cryptocurrencies, I find myself intrigued by the recent analysis pointing towards a potential 2-3x rally for Bitcoin (BTC). With my fingers crossed, I am cautiously optimistic about this prediction.
According to leading market analysts, Bitcoin (BTC) could be preparing for a significant price increase due to several positive factors in its favor. However, after dipping to a 6-month low of $49,000 on August 5, BTC has been trading between roughly $58,000 and $60,500 over the past week.
As a researcher, I’ve been closely observing the market trends, and it appears that the recent dip below the all-time high of $73,7000 from March this year might be temporary. The mounting evidence suggests that Bitcoin, the market’s largest digital asset, is primed for a significant surge or breakout.
2-3X Bitcoin Rally Ahead?
According to technical expert Jamie Coutts, a favorable trend for his combined liquidity and momentum model (referred to as the “global liquidity momentum model”) has emerged for the first time since November 2023, potentially paving the way for significant profits in the leading cryptocurrency.
On a recent social media update (previously Twitter), Coutts pointed out that when the previous bullish indicator occurred, Bitcoin surged approximately 75% from November 2023 to April 2024, but subsequently reversed its trend and decreased by 25% from its peak this month.
As reported by Coutts, an increase in global liquidity has been pushing the Bullish trend lately. Specifically, the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China have injected approximately $400 billion and $97 billion into their respective economies over the last month.
Accompanying a significant drop in the U.S. dollar, Coutts posits that synchronized actions by global central banks, possibly with the approval of the Federal Reserve, are setting the stage for Bitcoin’s continued price increase.
According to projections made by Coutts, for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach its target, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) needs to stay significantly low, around or below 101, due to continuous injections by central banks. This would cause the global M2 money supply to exceed $120 trillion during this economic cycle. Under these conditions, Bitcoin could potentially increase its value by two to three times compared to its current market price.
In simpler terms, Coutts suggests that if we look at past market cycles like 2017, where Bitcoin surged 19 and 6 times from its initial value to 2020, he predicts another similar increase of 2-3 times. This would mean the price of Bitcoin could potentially reach more than double its current record high of $73,700, putting it on track towards $177,000.
Growing ‘HODL’ Trend
Bolstering the optimistic outlook, cryptocurrency expert Ali Martinez notes a change in investment behavior among Bitcoin holders, moving from hoarding for sale (distribution) to buying more (accumulation).
For the last quarter, approximately 300,000 Bitcoins have been accumulated for long-term storage, indicating an increasing faith in Bitcoin among its holders (HODLers).
At present, Bitcoin, the most significant digital currency available, is being exchanged at approximately $59,330, experiencing a minimal increase of 0.6% over the past day. This rise follows a dip to around $57,700 earlier on Thursday morning.
The question that lingers is if the broader economic situation will spur another surge in cryptocurrency market values and if Bitcoin’s bullish investors can leverage this trend, try to breach past resistance levels, and challenge Bitcoin’s significant barrier at around $70,000.
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2024-08-16 03:08