Ah, Bitcoin, that capricious creature of the digital realm, currently frolicking around the $84,000 mark, a mere 23% shy of its celestial zenith of $109,114, which it so gallantly reached in the frosty month of January 2025. This little dip has ignited a veritable bonfire of speculation, with whispers of a bear market lurking in the shadows. Yet, seasoned analysts, those wise sages of the blockchain, point to on-chain metrics that suggest a different tale altogether.
Recently, the ever-astute Ki Young Ju, the oracle of CryptoQuant, took to X to proclaim that the Bitcoin bull cycle might be gasping its last breath. He forecasted a dreary 6-12 months of sideways or bearish price action, citing a drought of fresh liquidity and the ominous specter of whale selling. But wait! In a subsequent post, he backtracked, clarifying that he foresaw no cataclysmic crash, but rather a prolonged period of consolidation. Phew! 😅
Let me respond to a few counterarguments: 1/ Retail hasn’t entered the market yet based on on-chain metrics. Retail is likely entering through ETFs — the paper Bitcoin layer — which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing…
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 19, 2025
According to our dear CryptoQuant founder, new liquidity channels and diminished contagion risks render a -70% drop as unlikely as a snowstorm in July. Instead, he anticipates a wide-ranging sideways movement, offering both shorting and buying opportunities. How generous! 🎩
Ju also pointed out that many retail investors are sneaking in through Bitcoin ETFs, which, alas, do not directly reflect on-chain metrics. Around 80% of spot ETF inflows are reportedly retail-driven. He suggested that once the macroeconomic winds shift, perhaps with interest rate cuts, a fresh liquidity wave could sweep in, triggering a buying frenzy. Surf’s up! 🌊
Bitcoin Severely Undervalued
Enter Merlijn, the crypto analyst with a bullish outlook that could make a bull blush. He recently declared that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued. According to his calculations, based on previous cycles, BTC should be strutting around at a princely $250,000 at this stage. This implies that the most magnificent price surge could still be lurking just around the corner, waiting to pounce.
BITCOIN IS SEVERELY UNDERVALUED! The 4th halving growth trajectory is way below historical norms. Previous cycles show that $BTC should be around $250,000 at this stage. Is the biggest pump yet to come?
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) March 20, 2025
In another post, Merlijn noted that BTC recently bounced off the 50-week Exponential Moving Average with a perfect bullish cross on the Stochastic RSI. Historically, such patterns have led to parabolic price moves. Buckle up! 🚀
BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO GO PARABOLIC! $BTC just bounced off the 50 EMA with a perfect bullish cross on the Stoch RSI! Historically, this has triggered MASSIVE parabolic moves. Don’t miss it!
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) March 20, 2025
On the daily BTC price chart, Bitcoin is trading near the middle Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) around $85,061, suggesting a phase of consolidation. The upper and lower bands are slightly expanding, which could result in an increased volatility.
A break above $92,155 (upper band) could signal a bullish breakout. Fingers crossed! 🤞
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2025-03-21 16:04