Bitcoin Trails behind Bonds and Stocks in Q2, Will Underperformance Continue?

As an experienced financial analyst, I’ve closely followed the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, for several years now. Based on my analysis of the current market trends and the information provided in the article, I believe that the recent price consolidation of Bitcoin is a healthy development for the long-term bull run.


As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I’ve observed that after reaching an unprecedented peak of $74,000 in early Q1 2024, Bitcoin has since experienced a period of price consolidation, resulting in a current trading value that is 0.75% lower at $66,994 as I write this. The market capitalization of Bitcoin now stands at an impressive $1.320 billion.

Based on the information from the Bloomberg report, I’ve found that stocks and bonds have surpassed Bitcoin in terms of returns during the current quarter. Traditional financial assets such as equities, commodities, and fixed-income instruments are all showing positive gains. In contrast, Bitcoin’s price has dipped by approximately 5% in the second quarter.

In the initial quarter, large amounts of money poured into the Bitcoin spot ETF, sparking great enthusiasm among investors. Since then, these inflows have persisted, but at a more moderate pace. However, doubts surrounding potential Fed interest rate reductions have put a damper on any significant Bitcoin price surge.

As a financial analyst, I’d rephrase that statement as follows: “New money flowing into ETFs isn’t the sole contributor to market price movements. Not every inflow signifies fresh funds entering the market.”

Demand for Bitcoin Products Remain a Bit Subdued

JPMorgan Chase & Co’s strategic team, headed by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, delved into the market trends of Bitcoin-related investment products. These products have garnered roughly $15 billion in new funds as per Bloomberg’s latest data.

Strategists have observed a notable change from using digital wallets on cryptocurrency exchanges towards the use of Bitcoin spot-ETFs instead. If we disregard this shift, they predict that approximately $12 billion will move into crypto this year through ETFs, venture capital investments, and CME Group futures transactions.

The current inflows into cryptocurrencies are less than the $45 billion invested during the bull market in 2021 and the $40 billion invested in 2022. JPMorgan strategists express doubts that these inflows will persist at their current rate throughout 2024.

The primary reason for the current Bitcoin sales pressure is the Bitcoin miner response to soaring production costs. Following the April halving, miners have intensely sold off their BTC to offset the substantial increase in the expense of mining each coin, now estimated to be around $77,000.

#BTC
The fact that Bitcoin is struggling to breakout is beneficial for the overall cycle
Bitcoin has never broken out this early in the Post-Halving period
If it occurred, the bull market’s duration would be significantly reduced, making it shorter than typical bull markets.
This…
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 13, 2024

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2024-06-14 15:03