As a seasoned crypto investor with years of market navigation under my belt, I find VirtualBacon’s analysis compelling and well-grounded. The historical data, coupled with the anticipated monetary policy shifts by the Federal Reserve, presents a convincing case for a bullish outlook on Bitcoin. However, as always, it’s important to remember that the crypto market can be as unpredictable as a roller coaster ride in Coney Island, so buckle up and hold tight!
Since Monday, the Bitcoin market has experienced a period of stabilization, with prices holding steady above the $56,000 level following a dip that occurred on Friday, which took it down from approximately $65,000 to around $52,600.
On the other hand, one expert predicts that the pessimistic attitude could persist, implying a possible return to lower prices before a notable rise occurs.
BTC’s Future Price Action In Focus
Analysts under the username “VirtualBacon,” who were previously active on X (formerly Twitter), have expressed apprehension about an upcoming “major Bitcoin correction.” In approximately the next 2-3 weeks, they predict that Bitcoin might undergo one final dip before starting a new bull market.
Amidst widespread fear, people are predicting Bitcoin prices in the $40,000 range and suggesting that the bull market has ended. However, VirtualBacon asserts that even if the price drops to $45,000, $48,000, or even $43,000, a bull run is still imminent. This phase typically involves a sell-off by many investors before substantial price surges occur.
Despite the present graphs showing signs of decreasing highs and lows, hinting at a downward trend, VirtualBacon remains optimistic that an extended bear market is not highly probable.
The main factor influencing this feeling is the expected increase in money supply and reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, situations that usually support a growth trend, especially as we move towards 2025.
A significant factor in VirtualBacon’s analysis revolves around the critical support level for Bitcoin, which is represented by its 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). In the past, this level has often signaled the conclusion of bear markets, as Bitcoin has consistently rebounded from comparable levels in 2015 and 2019.
At present, the support for this asset is approximately $45,000, as indicated by several technical factors like Fibonacci retracement points and significant volume zones. These elements hint at robust support within the $43,000 to $49,000 price range.
If Bitcoin falls into that price range, the analyst anticipates it might be just a brief dip, or a “wick,” rather than a prolonged decline. Moreover, VirtualBacon points out that some traders are predicting potential prices around $50,000 to $51,000.
On the other hand, acting at these points may carry some risk, as it could potentially spark a chain reaction of forced selling, which might drive the price down to around $44,000.
How Upcoming Fed Decisions May Fuel Bitcoin Bullish Momentum
Historically speaking, Bitcoin tends to perform less robustly in September. Contrastingly, October, November, and December have typically demonstrated more bullish tendencies. As per VirtualBacon’s analysis over the past ten years, around eight out of every ten Octobers have concluded favorably for Bitcoin, with November also exhibiting a strong historical performance.
This market analysis aligns with the approaching Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, during which an analyst anticipates a probability of about 70% for a reduction in interest rates by 0.25%, and a 30% likelihood for a double reduction.
VirtualBacon suggests that starting such a process might trigger a 12-month period of increasing liquidity which historically tends to favor riskier investments such as Bitcoin, potentially pushing the foremost cryptocurrency beyond its previous peak of $73,700.
Contrary to the widespread apprehension in the market suggested by the Fear and Greed Index, an analyst suggests that this fear could be misplaced, given the upcoming changes in monetary policy. With the Federal Reserve planning rate cuts, there’s a strong possibility that sentiment will swiftly transform, possibly sparking renewed enthusiasm and investment in Bitcoin.
BTC trades at $56,930 when writing, recording a slightly 0.7% gain in the last 24 hours.
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2024-09-10 21:58