As a seasoned financial analyst with a deep understanding of cryptocurrency markets, I’ve witnessed numerous price fluctuations throughout the years. The current state of Bitcoin, which is experiencing significant selling pressure and nearing its worst monthly performance in over a year and a half, is no exception.
As we near the end of April, Bitcoin‘s price has been undergoing selling pressure and reached a new ten-day low. With only two days remaining until the end of the month, Bitcoin is poised to mark its worst performance in the past 18 months since November 2022.
The volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions are causing uncertainty for riskier assets like Bitcoin, putting them under duress. In the immediate term, there’s a substantial amount of sellers waiting in the wings between previous all-time highs and the current price, making further advancement seem challenging despite the potential for an additional $12,000 increase.
As a crypto investor, I believe some optimists among us argue that the current consolidation phase of BTC/USD is just a pause before we resume the bullish trend that kicked off in the first quarter. This perspective gains strength as we witness a sense of déjà vu this week. Just like the United States did earlier, Hong Kong is set to launch its own Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on April 30, adding another layer of legitimacy and confidence to the digital currency market.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that despite some brief rallies in Bitcoin’s price, it hasn’t been able to push through the resistance at $65,000. On the other hand, the bears have struggled to force the price below the support level of $60,000. In his latest assessment, Skew stated: “I believe there’s a possibility for an extended sideways trend between $67,000 and $58,000 before we witness a significant price breakout that is backed by robust market flow.”
Based on current market analysis, Bitcoin ($BTC) could experience a prolonged sideways movement between the prices of $67,000 and $58,000 before a significant breakout occurs.
Previous cycle 2018 – 2021Price had actually an echo bubble with backtested 1M close as resistance
then 21 – 28days consolidation prior to breaching ATHs & parabolic run…
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) April 28, 2024
Skew highlighted that the monthly close, which was expected to happen in about two days, would set a new focal point for Bitcoin’s price significance. He further added, “Afterward, the monthly and weekly opening prices will become critical benchmarks.”
Key Week for Bitcoin Ahead
As a crypto investor, I’m closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price action this week, with significant macroeconomic events on the horizon. The FOMC meeting on May 1 is particularly noteworthy, as the Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rates. While most analysts (myself included) anticipate that rates will remain unchanged, given the persistently high inflation numbers, it’s essential to stay informed of any unexpected developments that could impact Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Outside of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, two significant macroeconomic events are scheduled for next week: jobless claims on May 2 and unemployment data on May 3. Despite these upcoming reports, the optimistic view for Bitcoin and risk assets is likely to persist, unless there’s a shift in investor sentiment towards expecting a substantial worsening of economic conditions. In the most pessimistic scenario, if Bitcoin fails to hold above $58,000, it could drop to $50,000 and potentially slide even lower to $46,000.
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2024-04-29 16:33