As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade of experience under my belt, I’ve witnessed numerous market swings and price movements that have shaped the cryptocurrency landscape. The recent Bitcoin price recovery, which saw BTC surpassing $63,000 for the first time in two weeks after a 17% increase since last Friday, has been particularly intriguing.
Last Friday, Bitcoin‘s price dropped to $53,600. However, it bounced back strongly over the weekend, surpassing the $63,000 mark on Monday, marking a significant gain of around 17% compared to last week’s price. This is the first time in two weeks that Bitcoin has reached this level. The recent surge can be attributed to several influential factors that have collectively driven up the price of the leading cryptocurrency.
#1 The “Trump Bitcoin Pump”
The price of Bitcoin experienced a surge around the same time as the attempted assassination of former President and potential 2024 candidate Donald Trump. This incident significantly affected Trump’s election prospects, according to betting market Polymarket, which now predicts a 70% chance of his winning the upcoming election.
As a crypto investor and market observer, I’ve taken note of Will Clemente III’s recent insights on the topic. In his analysis on X, he pointed out that the odds of a Trump victory in November have been surging in prediction markets. Furthermore, based on Bitcoin’s reaction thus far, it seems the markets are preparing to fully price in a Trump win.
As a macro analyst, I, Alex Krüger, delve into the potential consequences of a Trump presidency on financial markets. The “Trump Trade,” as I refer to it, outlines the market shifts that may ensue upon Trump’s election or the anticipation thereof:
#2 German Selling Exhausted
The German government’s recent sale of over 50,000 Bitcoin, including the final transaction of 3846.05 BTC last week, which was the remaining portion seized from Movie2k, added to the market and may have helped in the current price uptick.
James “Checkmate” Check, a renowned on-chain Bitcoin analyst, expressed his awe at the robustness of Bitcoin’s price movement on occasion X. He pointed out that Bitcoin managed to withstand a massive sell order worth 50,000 Bitcoins within a few short weeks. Consequently, the price experienced a correction of approximately 25%, but in a well-structured and systematic manner. A comparable event occurred when LUNA sold off around 80,000 dollars’ worth of Bitcoin, causing the price to plummet from $46,000 to $17,000 after an initial dip to $25,000. However, it is essential to note that these situations are not identical in nature.
#3 DXY Is Showing Weakness
The decrease in the value of the US dollar, as indicated by a 1.8% drop in the DXY index over the past fortnight and reaching a five-week low of 104, might be contributing to Bitcoin’s recent price increase.
The anticipated reduction in interest rates and the expanding US federal budget deficit, amounting to $1.27 trillion by June, have led investors to seek out riskier assets such as Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, due in part to the weakening dollar.
Joe Burnett, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, pointed out on X yesterday that the prolonged selling period among Bitcoin miners is almost coming to an end, potentially signaling a shift in the trend and leading to price growth for Bitcoin. Historically, miner capitulation has been followed by price upward movements.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin broke above the significant 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a downward trendline on the weekend. This development is perceived as a bullish sign among traders, suggesting that the decline, which started in early June, may have come to an end.
At press time, BTC traded at $63,105.
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2024-07-15 11:46