As a seasoned crypto investor with a deep understanding of market trends and on-chain data, I’m keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s latest price action and the increasing activity from institutional investors. The German government’s continued sales of Bitcoin have certainly added to the fear of further capitulation in the market, but I remain confident that long-term holders will continue to accumulate as they view Bitcoin as digital insurance.
Over the past few days, the German government has stepped up its Bitcoin (BTC) disposals, leading to heightened apprehension among crypto investors about a possible deeper market decline. The Fear and Greed Index for Bitcoin reached a low of approximately 25% last Friday.
Bitcoins price is approaching a significant reversal signal based on technical analysis. This potential reversal is strengthened by the bearish divergence observed on the Weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has failed to align with the price trend’s upward momentum.
As a crypto investor, I’ve observed that Bitcoin’s price closing below the neckline of the double-top reversal pattern is a significant red flag. This indicates a potential downward trend in the near future. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s failure to regain the 200-day Moving Average as a support level adds to my concern.
Bitcoin Whales Increases On-chain Activity
As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I’ve noticed in recent weeks that Bitcoin’s price appeared to have peaked around $73,000, indicating a more pronounced mid-term correction. However, it is essential to remember that Bitcoin functions as a long-term digital insurance asset for many investors and traders. On-chain data reveals an uptick in institutional investor and long-term trader activity, which includes increasing their Bitcoin accumulation rates.
Institutions and large holders are buying #Bitcoin heavily
— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) July 11, 2024
I’ve analyzed the trends in the US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Trusts (ETTs) market as reported by Coinspeaker. Over the past four days, these ETTs have experienced a significant surge in demand, with over $700 million in cash inflows recorded. On Thursday alone, approximately $78.93 million flowed into these ETTs. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC led the way with the largest cash inflows.
As of now, the German government has sold approximately 6,390 Bitcoins, which is equivalent to around $365 million. The Bitcoin market has proven its stability by effectively managing over $2 billion in consecutive sales from the German authorities without undergoing significant price drops.
Economic Outlook
As a crypto investor, I closely monitor economic indicators that could impact the market, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Last Thursday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics unveiled the monthly and annual CPI reports. To my relief, these reports indicated a deceleration in inflation. In fact, both the annual and monthly data fell short of expectations, resulting in an overall US inflation rate of 3%. While this is slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, it’s a positive sign that inflation might be easing up.
Due to the favorable news marking the lowest figures since early 2021, the probability of an September interest rate reduction has risen. According to prominent forecasting platforms, this likelihood climbed from 65% to 80%.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada have recently made moves to reduce their interest rates.
Midterm Targets for BTC Price Action
In simple terms, the Bitcoin price may encounter significant resistance in the near future, requiring it to surpass the $61,000 mark repeatedly to disprove potential sell-offs around the $40,000 to $50,000 price zone.
As a researcher studying the Bitcoin market, I’ve observed that maintaining a price above $40,000 in the short term is crucial for the $100,000 target to be achievable by the end of this year.
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2024-07-12 12:15