Today, Bitcoin (BTC), the most significant cryptocurrency in the world, experienced a dip below $60,000 earlier in the day, but it bounced back robustly within hours. Currently, the Bitcoin price is climbing up by 5%, approaching $65,000 as reported. Numerous elements have been causing fluctuation in BTC pricing, including geopolitical conflicts, the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024, and other relevant factors.
It’s worth noting that today marks the fourth Bitcoin halving and the expiry of over 21,845 BTC options with a total value of approximately $1.35 billion. The put-call ratio for these options is $0.63. According to Deribit exchange data, the price level causing the most distress for option holders is currently at $65,000. Despite anticipating further selling pressure on Bitcoin’s price, some traders have made bearish bets with a strike price set at $60,000.
Instead, the volatility implied in all significant Bitcoin contracts has decreased, largely because of the significant fall in call option prices. Furthermore, the anticipation of a Bitcoin split hasn’t significantly boosted its value.
Before Bitcoin’s options expiration, its price bounced back, giving traders an opportunity to capitalize on negative funding rates and buy long positions. This action contributed to the price rise. IT Tech, a crypto analyst, pointed out multiple instances of “short squeezes” where Bitcoin jumped over 4% to hit $65,000. In simpler terms, traders benefited from the unfavorable funding rates to buy more Bitcoins when its price was low, and this buying pressure caused the value to increase. Additionally, there were situations where investors holding short positions (betting that Bitcoin’s price would decrease) were forced to buy back their holdings at a higher price due to market conditions, further contributing to the surge.
Famous analyst Skew noticed an emerging pattern: shorts were getting closed out, while demand grew among long-term investors. According to Skew’s analysis, this rebound was mostly fueled by aggregate Contracts for Differences (CVDs) and Delta Spot. Additionally, substantial volumes in perpetual contracts arose due to the unwinding of short positions.
Bitcoin New All-Time High after BTC Halving 2024?
The Bitcoin halving will significantly reduce the daily production of new Bitcoins from 900 to 450, resulting in a substantial decrease in supply. However, the price increase following the halving is not guaranteed. Miners may choose to sell their existing Bitcoins to make up for the lost revenue, creating a continued selling pressure on the market post-halving event.
#BTC
When Could Bitcoin Peak In This Bull Market?
Historically, Bitcoin has peaked in its Bull Market 518-546 days after the Halving (Chart 1)
This is how typical Bitcoin Halving Cycles have progressed
So if history repeats…
Next Bull Market peak may occur 518-546 days…
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 19, 2024
The Bitcoin price is expected to rise in the year following the halving event. Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s Bull Market peak has occurred approximately 518-546 days after the Halving. Therefore, if history repeats itself, the next Bitcoin record high might occur around September-October 2025.
Bitcoin reached an record-breaking peak in March last month, but it has started to decline prior to the upcoming halving event.
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2024-04-19 16:51