As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience riding the digital wave, I find myself intrigued by Standard Chartered’s predictions for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. Having weathered market crashes, regulatory uncertainties, and the rise and fall of countless altcoins, I’ve learned to take such forecasts with a grain of salt, seasoned liberally with my own research and intuition.
According to a recent report by Standard Chartered, Bitcoin is expected to experience a substantial price increase before 2024 concludes, regardless of the outcome of the US election. The report predicts that if Donald Trump wins the presidency, Bitcoin could reach as high as $125,000. However, should Kamala Harris emerge victorious, the predicted peak would be $75,000. This analysis was made as the bank resumed its coverage of the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, the report indicates that the 24-hour volatility is currently at 3.2%, while Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at approximately $1.14 trillion, with a daily trading volume of around $34.87 billion. The current price of Bitcoin is around $57,789 as shown by the symbol BTC.
Election Outcome Could Impact Timing, Not Direction
According to the bank’s findings, while the outcome of the US election certainly matters, it may not have as significant an impact on Bitcoin’s price trend as some might think. The report underscores that Bitcoin’s price is poised to reach unprecedented peaks, regardless of the election result, due to numerous factors. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, contends that advancements in regulation, specifically with regards to loosening strict banking regulations on digital assets, will persist, irrespective of who occupies the office in 2025.
Progress might not be consistent across different administrations. A Trump presidency could potentially speed up the process due to proposed reforms such as abolishing strict SAB 121 accounting rules for banks’ digital asset holdings. In comparison, the report suggests a more gradual approach towards regulatory certainty under a Harris administration. This initial slowdown might trigger some market decline, but investors may eventually return with optimism, looking forward to potential long-term benefits.
Positive Catalysts Beyond Politics
Beyond regulatory improvements, several other aspects are fueling Bitcoin’s positive projection. The report highlights the recent flattening and subsequent steepening of the US Treasury yield curve as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s rising value. Standard Chartered maintains its optimism, emphasizing that both institutional and individual investors remain active in Bitcoin, with some even buying during market downturns to enter the market.
Despite these price projections, Kendrick warns that the market could see some volatility, especially if Harris wins, with Bitcoin potentially facing an initial sell-off. However, this dip is expected to be temporary, as the long-term drivers, including regulatory reforms and increasing institutional adoption, remain intact.
Market Sentiment and Predictive Markets
The feelings about the upcoming election and future Bitcoin prices are mirrored in platforms such as Polymarket, where Harris is presently slightly ahead in prediction markets compared to Trump. This shift occurred following the most recent US presidential debate, which seemed to boost her chances of winning. Interestingly, neither candidate mentioned cryptocurrency during the debate; however, both have publicly expressed their views on the digital asset sector, with Trump generally showing a positive attitude towards Bitcoin.
As the election draws near within two months, there’s a lot of anticipation in both political and cryptocurrency circles, as they closely follow the course of events. Standard Chartered’s projection has ignited debates over how regulatory changes and overall market tendencies might impact Bitcoin in the long run. Despite being hopeful about the future, the crypto community is keeping a wary eye on any short-term volatility that could result from the election results.
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2024-09-12 18:06