As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience navigating the ever-evolving financial markets, I find myself cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s current trajectory. While it’s true that the recent price dip to around $60K is concerning, it’s not entirely uncharted territory for this volatile asset.
Initially trading erratically at the start of the fourth quarter, Bitcoin dipped by almost 2% over the past 24 hours, approaching the support level around $60,000. Despite briefly surpassing its 50-day moving average, it ended Wednesday in a mixed state, showing uncertainty in its movement.
In recent times, there has been a marked increase in anxiety about potential further sell-offs in the crypto market within the upcoming weeks. This surge in worry is reflected in Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index, which dipped to 37% in the last day, indicating a strong sense of fear among investors concerning bearish trends.
Although Bitcoin’s price showed significant improvement in September, it’s still not safe to say it has fully recovered from its technical perspective. As previously mentioned by Coinspeaker, if the price fails to maintain closes above the July high of approximately $71,000, there is a risk that the price could drop below $50,000 again.
If the current support at its current level doesn’t stand strong, it’s possible that the price of Bitcoin could stabilize between approximately $58,000 and $54,000. Should the negative market trends continue, a fall to prices below $50,000 may become unavoidable over the next few weeks.
If the current trend in Bitcoin’s price movement follows a descending parallel channel, it might fall to around $52,000. This pattern suggests a potential downward trajectory.
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 2, 2024
Bitcoin Whales Takes Refuge
Based on recent analysis from Coinglass, approximately 5,000 Bitcoins, valued around $300 million, have been transferred to centralized cryptocurrency exchanges within the last day. A significant portion of these Bitcoin deposits, more than 3,000 BTCs, were sent to Coinbase Pro.
The significant drop in Bitcoin prices lately can mainly be linked to the decline of U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). On the first day of October alone, these funds lost about $242 million, and they further recorded over $91 million in net outflows on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, it’s worth noting that BlackRock’s IBIT experienced a net withdrawal of approximately $13 million. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw the largest cash outflows of around $27 million and $60 million respectively on the same day.
Notably, only Fidelity’s FBTC registered a net cash inflow of about $21 million on Wednesday.
Over the past two days, data from Santiment indicates that a significant amount of Bitcoin (approximately $3 billion) held by short-term investors has been moved to various cryptocurrency exchanges.
What Next?
The instability in the cryptocurrency market is mainly due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and tensions between Europe and Russia. As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, it’s likely that crypto-related matters will significantly impact the next presidency.
Beyond that, over 50 million U.S. registered voters have ties to the cryptocurrency sector. As of now, Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump has pledged to create a global economic powerhouse, focusing on making it a major hub for cryptocurrencies.
In the wake of the latest interest rate reductions in the U.S., the economic landscape is transforming, which could trigger the upcoming surge in the cryptocurrency market, often referred to as a ‘bull run’. Additionally, the price of gold has already shown significant growth within its value range.
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2024-10-03 12:06