As a seasoned researcher with over a decade of experience in the cryptocurrency market, I have witnessed the highs and lows, the bull runs and bear markets. The current state of Bitcoin (BTC) price is reminiscent of a familiar dance between bulls and bears that we’ve seen before.
As an analyst, I’ve observed that Bitcoin (BTC) has been striving to mimic the bullish surge exhibited by Gold and conventional stock indexes. Closing at approximately $61k on Wednesday, August 21, this suggests a possible bullish escalation in the near future. However, it’s crucial to note that Bitcoin’s price trajectory is not entirely clear of obstacles when considering both technical and fundamental factors.
In simpler terms, Bitcoin’s price has been closing below its 50 and 200 day moving averages since the crash on August 5, suggesting that bears (those who believe the price will fall) have control over the market in the medium term. Furthermore, for the first time since October last year, these two moving averages crossed each other, a pattern often referred to as a “death-cross,” which is typically a bearish signal.
Despite a dip earlier, the Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has since bounced back above the 50% threshold, suggesting that the market may be shifting from bearish to bullish trends.
On a weekly basis, Bitcoin’s price movement appears to be forming an upside-down triangle, a chart pattern that typically follows with continued bullish momentum.
If the trend of Bitcoin’s price remaining bearish, as it has done in August and September in past years, continues, there is a possibility that the primary cryptocurrency might drop back towards $50,000 before potentially reaching another record high.
But if Bitcoin’s price maintains a consistent climb above $70,000 in the short term, it might contradict the current pessimistic views.
Institutional Investors on a Bitcoin Buying Spree
Based on recent market research by Coinglass, it’s been observed that the quantity of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges has progressively declined over the course of the last year. In just the past week, a total of approximately 6,000 Bitcoins have left these exchanges.
starting on March 14th, over 200,000 Bitcoins have moved off of centralized exchanges, reducing the total supply to approximately 2.44 million today. Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin has decreased from $72,000 to roughly $61,000 as of this moment.
The significant decrease in Bitcoin supply on cryptocurrency exchanges is primarily caused by the increasing interest from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the last fortnight, these ETFs have seen a total influx of approximately $210 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC taking the lead.
On Wednesday, I witnessed a significant surge in our crypto portfolio as the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an approximately $40 million net cash inflow. This influx boosted the total assets under my management to a staggering $55.96 billion.
75% of all #Bitcoin hasn’t moved in at least 6 months
Diamond hands are strong
— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) August 21, 2024
Based on recent analysis from Glassnode, it appears that around three quarters of all Bitcoins haven’t been active for the past half year, suggesting a notable transition from short-term traders towards long-term investors.
Midterm BTC Price Expectations
It’s predicted that the value of Bitcoin will lead to a much-awaited period of growth for alternative cryptocurrencies, or “altcoins,” in the short term. The recent green light given to Ether and Solana ETFs in the U.S. and Brazil, respectively, has boosted the likelihood of an altcoin boom happening soon.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s dominance has been shaping a significant long-term reversal trend, following a strong surge over the past twelve months.
Despite everything, #BTC is right around where it always is at this point in the market cycle
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 21, 2024
According to cryptocurrency expert and observer, Benjamin Cowen, the current market behavior of Bitcoin appears to resemble past bullish periods. Consequently, he anticipates a strong upward trend in Q4 this year and into the next.
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2024-08-22 14:34