As a seasoned researcher and analyst who has been closely monitoring the crypto market for over a decade now, I find myself at a crossroads with Bitcoin’s current price action. The resistance at $64K and the bearish outlook from veterans like Peter Brandt are causing me to tread cautiously. However, the robust fundamentals and the potential of the US spot BTC ETFs cannot be ignored.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering at approximately $63,829. Over the past 24 hours, its volatility has remained minimal at 0.0%. The market capitalization of Bitcoin stands at a massive $1.26 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $23.42 billion. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s price has encountered a significant resistance level near $64K, aligning with the 200-day Moving Average (MA) in recent times. On a four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin’s chart suggests a potential reversal trend, as it shows an uptrend accompanied by a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The recent crossover between two moving averages (50 and 200 MA) is causing concern among traders, as it’s often seen as a negative signal for the market. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has advised caution, suggesting a potentially bearish trend in the medium term. However, according to Brandt, if Bitcoin can consistently close above its July high of roughly $69,831, it would contradict the broader bearish trend that started in early March.
As a crypto investor, I’ve observed that Bitcoin (BTC) has been shaping an expanding triangle, characterized by lower highs and lower lows, even though its underlying fundamentals remain strong.
Currently, the price trend of Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) shows a pattern of successively lower peaks (higher highs) and troughs (lower lows). A substantial break above the July highs is necessary to alter this trend and officially conclude the six-month ascending triangle formation.
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 25, 2024
If Bitcoin maintains its position above approximately $63,300, there’s a possibility it could surge towards $65,500 during the midterm. However, if the selling pressure exceeds the buying force in the near future, a drop below $60,000 may occur.
Bitcoin Whales Registers Mixed On-chain Activities
Based on an examination of blockchain information, it appears that certain high-value investors, predominantly Bitcoin miners, have been offloading their Bitcoin holdings, while some others are actively accumulating more. In the last 24 hours, data analysis from Santiment indicates that Bitcoin miners have sold approximately 20,000 Bitcoins, valued at over $1.3 billion.
Despite a significant decrease, approximately 100,000 units of Bitcoin, valued at more than $6.4 billion, have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges in the last month. Consequently, the current Bitcoin supply held on these exchanges is at its lowest point in several years, standing around 2.34 million coins as of this report.
The significant drop in the amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges is likely due to a high demand for Bitcoin from companies looking to issue U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). As per the most recent market information, these U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen approximately $1 billion in cash investments over the past three weeks.
On Wednesday, approximately $106 million was poured into U.S.-traded Bitcoin ETFs collectively, with the largest contribution coming from BlackRock’s IBIT at around $184 million.
On Wednesday, there was an approximately $33 million and $47 million withdrawal of funds from Fidelity’s FBTC and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) respectively.
The mixed reactions from Bitcoin whales have weighed down the bullish midterm sentiment.
Market Picture
As we approach the final days of a tumultuous September, there’s been a noticeable decrease in fears about another crypto market crash. Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index has settled around 50%, indicating a balanced market, with its value currently trading above $63K.
As a researcher, I am anticipating that the upcoming US elections in 2024 could potentially set off a renewed surge in the cryptocurrency market, particularly during the last quarter of the year. Additionally, gold and significant stock indexes have been consistently rising, with gold hitting a record-breaking high earlier today.
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2024-09-26 11:03