As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in financial markets, I have witnessed numerous market fluctuations and events that have shaped the global economy. The current state of the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, during this critical period of American presidential elections is a fascinating study indeed.
With Americans heading to vote and choose their 47th president, the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, appears to be influenced by the election’s intensity. On Tuesday, November 5, during the mid-European session, the total crypto market cap dipped by approximately 2 percent within a 24-hour period, settling around $2.38 trillion. In the same timeframe, Bitcoin’s price plummeted to as low as $66,853 before rebounding and standing at $68,760 at the moment of this report. The 24-hour volatility for Bitcoin is only 0.3 percent, while its market cap stands at $1.36 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $47.30 billion.
In response to increased market turbulence, approximately $200 million worth of positions were automatically closed (liquidated) in the cryptocurrency margin trading sector. Notably, over $148 million of these liquidations involved traders who had taken long positions. The upcoming significant news announcements from the U.S., set to occur in the near future, have played a substantial role in stirring up this volatility within the crypto market.
In a notable shift since the Satoshi era, the cryptocurrency matter has gained significant attention during the U.S. general elections for the first time. As per a recent poll, an overwhelming number of crypto investors and registered American voters lean towards supporting a pro-crypto candidate who will influence the industry’s direction in the coming years.
In terms of the ongoing presidential contest, Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, was ahead of Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, by over 22% in the Polymarket survey at the time this data was compiled. Notably, Trump has garnered significant support from the cryptocurrency community due to his pledges to shield the industry from overzealous regulators like the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Bitcoin Whales Take a Step Back
Alongside the significant influence of the 2024 U.S. elections on the cryptocurrency market, both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve are projected to announce their key interest rates this coming Thursday. Financial experts anticipate another rate reduction for both the U.S. and the UK as a strategy to stimulate their respective economies.
Due to the fluctuation and uncertainty in the crypto market, many investors are choosing to safeguard their assets by investing in stablecoin markets as a protective measure against short-term volatility. Recent data analysis by Coinglass shows an increase of approximately 6k in the overall Bitcoin supply on centralized exchanges over the past week, bringing the total to roughly 2.39 million.
On Monday, the companies looking to launch Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. continued with the cash withdrawals that began last Friday, as concerns about increased cryptocurrency volatility grew. However, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net inflow of approximately $38 million on this day. In contrast, the tests for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF issuance recorded an overall withdrawal of over $541 million.
In the past two months, Mount Gox saw its busiest period of on-chain activity following a transfer of more than 2.1 billion dollars’ worth of Bitcoin into an unidentified digital wallet.
🚨 Mt. Gox transferred another 32,371 $BTC ($2.19B) to 3 new wallets in the last 2 hours.
For the past four days, Mt. Gox has sent a total of 32,871 Bitcoin (worth approximately $2.22 billion) out from its holdings. A portion of these coins, specifically 296 Bitcoin ($20.13 million), were transferred to platforms such as B2C2 and OKX.
Currently, there remain 12,006 $BTC…
— Spot On Chain (@spotonchain) November 5, 2024
What’s Next?
As a crypto investor, I’m feeling optimistic about the coming quarters. After a long consolidation period over the past eight months, it seems the market is gearing up for a bull run. History tells us that during times of significant US elections and previous crypto bull markets, Bitcoin has shown a strong likelihood of maintaining its October bullish momentum.
After the past three United States presidential elections, there’s been a rollercoaster of volatility with Bitcoin. However, if we look at the bigger picture, its trajectory remains generally upwards!
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 4, 2024
If Bitcoin’s price persistently drops below its current support level (ranging from $61k to $65k) over the next few weeks, the optimistic outlook could either be challenged or temporarily postponed.
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2024-11-05 12:53