As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for spotting trends and understanding their underlying factors, I find the recent report by Bernstein intriguing. My personal experiences have taught me that political events can significantly impact the crypto market, and the 2024 U.S. presidential election seems to be no exception.
The digital currency Bitcoin (BTC), currently valued at around $55,363, may reach a new record high of approximately $90,000 by year-end if Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as suggested in a report from research firm Bernstein. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has exhibited a volatility of 2.1%. It currently boasts a market capitalization of $1.09 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $24.41 billion.
Experts at the company believe that Trump’s win might lead to a substantial increase in the cryptocurrency market due to his positive views on Bitcoin.
Trump’s Pro-Bitcoin Stance
Donald Trump has often expressed his backing for Bitcoin in his political discourses. He’s suggested that the U.S. should take the lead in the cryptocurrency sector, aspiring to make America a dominant force in Bitcoin mining. Moreover, he’s proposed the idea of having a pro-crypto leader at the helm of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), setting up a national Bitcoin reserve, and creating a Presidential advisory group on crypto matters.
According to Bernstein’s findings, these proposed measures may foster a favorable legal landscape for cryptocurrencies, an aspect that has been missing in the last few years. The digital currency sector has encountered hurdles due to economic conditions and stringent regulations over the past three years.
In recent times, the regulatory environment has been quite challenging, as notable crypto firms such as Coinbase and Uniswap have faced actions. However, experts predict that should Trump secure another term, his administration’s policies might stimulate innovation and increase the acceptance of digital currencies across a wider spectrum.
Conversely, the report issues a cautionary note suggesting that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, Bitcoin could experience a substantial drop. Analysts foresee a possible breakdown of Bitcoin’s current support level at $50,000, with potential declines ranging from $30,000 to $40,000.
The anticipated decrease is linked to Harris’s ambiguous stance towards cryptocurrencies, as she hasn’t discussed them in her speeches or policy plans. Although Harris has interacted with key figures in the crypto industry, analysts foresee a significant difference in their respective crypto policies between the two candidates.
Market Recovery Tied to Election Outcome
The analysis within the report additionally highlighted a potential link between the crypto market’s revival and the election results. If Trump wins favorably, it might eliminate current hindrances, thereby encouraging financial institutions to engage more vigorously in the crypto market.
At the moment, Bernstein’s report is significant because Bitcoin ETFs seem to be losing momentum, possibly due to a decrease in institutional investment. Over an eight-day period spanning up to early September, these ETFs have seen approximately $1.2 billion being withdrawn each day, marking their longest streak of daily net outflows since they were first introduced.
Over the next few weeks, the growing popularity of Trump in recent surveys might affect investors’ attitudes towards the market. Currently, prediction platforms like Polymarket show Trump with a slight advantage, having approximately a 52% probability of winning against Kamala Harris who has a 47%. The future direction of Bitcoin’s price is still undecided as traders are taking precautions by hedging their investments in anticipation of possible market fluctuations following the upcoming debate.
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2024-09-09 16:35