As a seasoned researcher with years of market analysis under my belt, I can’t help but feel a mix of anticipation and caution when it comes to the current Bitcoin price scenario. Arthur Hayes’ prediction of a potential crash below $50k aligns with the recent economic indicators, particularly the US jobs data which has shown a significant downturn.
Arthur Hayes, one of the co-founders of BitMEX, voiced a pessimistic prediction about Bitcoin‘s short-term price trend today. On his social media platform X, he shared his individual trading strategy, saying, “Bitcoin feels heavy to me, I’m aiming for prices under $50k this weekend. I’ve made a risky short position. Wish me luck, as I’m quite the gambler.”
Why Hayes Possibly Expects A Bitcoin Price Crash
Hayes did not directly explain his reasons for making the forecast, but the timing of his statement seems to coincide with crucial US economic data releases due out this Friday. Recently, the US job market has been a key focus for financial analysts. The Kobeissi Letter experts, discussing the situation, pointed out how unemployment statistics are increasingly impacting Federal Reserve decisions.
It’s been revealed through X that prediction markets are indicating for the first time since August 5th, a forecast of four interest rate reductions or 100 basis points worth of cuts in 2024, according to Kalshi. Over the past two days, these prediction markets have also added an extra rate cut forecast for 2024. This shift is due to worsening labor market data across the board. It’s evident that unemployment statistics are increasingly influencing Fed policy decisions, alongside inflation.
As per the analysts’ predictions, today’s employment data will significantly influence whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reduces interest rates by 0.5% or 0.25%. This decision is expected to be made during the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 17-18, 2024. If the jobs report meets or exceeds expectations, the Kobeissi analysts anticipate a 0.25% interest rate reduction. They also suggest that recent interest rate forecasts seem to be leaning too optimistic again.
Remarkably, recent data shows that the US job market has been on a downtrend. The July JOLTs survey revealed a decrease in job openings to 7.67 million, which is the lowest since January 2021 and below the anticipated 8.09 million. This indicates a notable disparity between predictions and actual figures.
Starting from March 2022, there has been a significant decrease in job openings by approximately 4.51 million, which equates to around 38%. This substantial drop is referred to as “MASSIVE” by The Kobeissi Letter. They further explained that the most pronounced decline was observed in construction jobs, with only 248,000 vacancies available in July – a level not seen since October 2020. Simultaneously, the number of job openings compared to unemployed workers decreased to 1.07 in July, returning to levels last seen in 2018.
Against the backdrop of deteriorating employment figures and adjusted economic projections, it’s clear that this negatively impacts the Bitcoin market. Hayes anticipates further unfavorable economic data, which he thinks might drive the Bitcoin price down to levels below $50,000.
Is $46,000 The Bottom?
In simpler terms, Peter Brandt, a well-known trader, has joined the group predicting a negative trend by analyzing the technical aspects of Bitcoin’s weekly chart. He described this pattern as an “inverted expanding triangle” or “megaphone” shape, which suggests potential for Bitcoin to drop towards approximately $46,000. This indicates that there is more demand to sell Bitcoin than to buy it in the current market.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the current trend we’re seeing is referred to as an “inverted expanding triangle” or a “megaphone.” This means a potential drop could occur towards the 46,000 level or thereabouts. For our bull market to regain momentum, we need a significant surge to new all-time highs (ATHs). At present, selling pressure seems stronger than buying interest in this pattern.
At press time, BTC traded at $55,767.
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2024-09-06 16:16