Arthur Hayes: Crypto Market to See ‘Harrowing Dump’ on Trump’s Inaugural Day

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As a researcher with extensive experience in the crypto market, I find Arthur Hayes’ prediction of a “harrowing dump” on January 20 intriguing but not entirely convincing. While I have seen sudden market fluctuations, the timing and magnitude of such a drop, especially during the inauguration of a new president, seems unlikely given the current economic landscape.

Arthur Hayes, a well-known figure in the crypto industry and co-founder of top crypto exchange BitMEX, predicted that on January 20, the day Donald Trump begins his presidency in the United States, the crypto market could experience a severe downturn, with Bitcoin (BTC) and other altcoins potentially plummeting following their recent substantial growth.

In a post named “Trump Truth”, Hayes predicted that there would be a decrease or easing up on certain matters during Trump’s inauguration day, as market participants anticipate buying cryptocurrencies at reduced prices in the first half of 2025. The crypto entrepreneur suggested investors to increase their Bitcoin holdings if such a price drop occurs, recommending them to recover quickly and resume investing aggressively, or as he put it, “to lick our wounds and get back on the bull.

Hayes pointed out that Trump, along with his pro-cryptocurrency supporters, have a limited amount of time left to fulfill the pledges made throughout their campaign speeches, and he stated that immediate economic and political miracles are not easily achievable by Trump. Furthermore, during his first 100 days in office, Hayes anticipates Trump to prioritize addressing the “massive devaluation of the dollar compared to gold” as it offers a swift method for making American production costs globally competitive.

As a researcher, I’ve taken note of the assertion made by the BitMEX founder: the devaluation of USD relative to gold could potentially trigger an immediate reshoring of productive capacity. This shift might then escalate into a wave of hiring as companies look to establish or re-establish operations within their home countries. However, it seems that this anticipated increase in employment opportunities has yet to materialize under the administration of President Joe Biden.

As a crypto investor, I share Hayes’ perspective that the prophecy of Bitcoin being used as a strategic reserve by US states might not come to fruition. However, even without this realization, I personally hold physical gold bars in secure vaults and junior mining ETFs related to gold. Interestingly, just the mere suggestion of making Bitcoin a strategic asset could generate buying pressure on the leading digital currency.

Leading Crypto Asset Makes a New ATH

Over the past day, Bitcoin reached a record-breaking peak for the first time ever, surpassing $108,000. At present, it’s trading at $103,935.27, having decreased by 3.04% within the last 24 hours. Its current market cap stands at a massive $2.05 trillion. In just the last month, Bitcoin has soared by an impressive 13.27%. Now, analysts predict it could reach as high as $125,000, a forecast made by Matrixport a year ago.

Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 63.62, indicating that the bulls are maintaining control over the cryptocurrency’s price movement. The slope of the RSI line hints towards a potential revisit to the $100,000 mark in the short term. Bitcoin has been overbought for an extended period and is currently experiencing a consolidation phase.

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2024-12-18 13:42