Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have outlined a unique opportunity for 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings to gain regulatory approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) within an eight-day window, starting today and extending to November 17.
The SEC’s Timely Window
The eight-day window for potential approvals comes as a result of the SEC’s extension of the deadline for several pending spot Bitcoin ETF filings, with November 8 marking the last day of the comment period.
Seyffart noted that “delay orders were issued by the SEC for BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK), Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity Investments & Valkyrie at the same time.” This presents a unique situation where the SEC has the opportunity to approve all 12 filings simultaneously, a possibility that analysts believe is increasingly likely.
The reason this window is so critical is that it is the first available opportunity following Grayscale Investment’s recent court victory. Grayscale, a prominent crypto asset manager, has been seeking to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF. The recent legal victory has given the company renewed hope in achieving this conversion.
The window for the approval of all 12 filings ends on November 17. However, Seyffart emphasized that the SEC could technically make decisions on nine of the twelve applications anytime before January 10. Both analysts predict a high probability of approval of around 90% before this deadline.
Market Impact of a Spot Bitcoin ETF Anticipation
The mere possibility of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals has injected fresh optimism into the crypto market. In the past three months, Bitcoin’s price has surged by more than 30%. This notable rally has also had a positive ripple effect on other major cryptocurrencies. Solana (SOL) experienced a remarkable 93% gain, while XRP and Ethereum (ETH) grew by 36% and 20% in the past month.
Similarly, the trading volume for ProShares and Grayscale products has increased significantly. Data from multiple sources, including a tweet from Eric Balchunas, show a significant weekly inflow into the Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), which ProShares launched in 2021, as well as the GBTC. This heightened activity is a clear indication of investor interest and enthusiasm.
Meanwhile, Grayscale, in the wake of heightened expectations for ETF approvals, has been actively engaging with the SEC. The crypto asset manager has reportedly initiated discussions regarding its application to convert its GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Market participants are hoping that the approval of these ETFs will trigger the next bull market, bringing new investors and institutional capital into the crypto space. With the removal of entry barriers, as it concerns regulation, Bitcoin is positioned to soar. Notably, not all analysts are convinced that this rally will have staying power, highlighting the inherent volatility and uncertainty in the crypto market.
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