As a seasoned analyst with over a decade of experience in the crypto market, I have seen countless bull and bear cycles, making me somewhat of a cryptocurrency dinosaur. When it comes to Dogecoin, my perspective is always rooted in a pragmatic approach, balancing technical analysis with an understanding of market sentiment.
Financial analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) predicts a substantial rise in Dogecoin‘s value, estimating it could reach anywhere from $1 to $2 by late December or early January. This optimistic prediction is made against some doubts about the recent trends exhibited by the meme-based cryptocurrency.
One Last Dip For Dogecoin Price Before $1?
For approximately seven days, starting from November 12 and ending on November 19, Dogecoin displayed a falling wedge pattern, which is typically seen as bullish on lower timeframes. On November 19, the cryptocurrency broke free from this structure, leading to some enthusiasm among traders. Nevertheless, Kevin remains skeptical about the robustness of this breakout.
He expressed his viewpoint through X, saying, “This small and unusual uptrend on Dogecoin resembles a questionable bull flag to me, it appears quite feeble.” He added that by examining the money flow over shorter periods and considering the opinions of shrewd investors, there’s a lack of conviction. If the money flow continues to plateau, his primary prediction of additional correction or consolidation becomes more plausible. Interestingly, this scenario, if it unfolds as expected, could be even more optimistic if we experience a swift upward movement right now.
As a confident crypto investor, when asked by a fellow user if Dogecoin could reach above $0.40 by mid-December, I shared my optimistic outlook: “I believe it’ll be trading between $1 and $2 by the end of December, possibly extending into early January.
Despite his bullish long-term outlook, Kevin still expects continued short-term correction for the Dogecoin price. He cautioned that “a lot of people will be wiped out if this occurs.”
He provided details about his projected prices for Dogecoin: “My initial price target and a significant level to maintain for Dogecoin is between $0.30 and $0.26 cents. This range represents the golden retracement levels. It’s a 30-40% drop from the local peak, which, in a bull market, is an ideal correction size.
As an analyst, I’ve been closely studying the market trends and I recently found some interesting insights using the Pi Cycle Tops Indicator, a tool often used in Bitcoin analysis. Applying this indicator to Dogecoin, I foresee much higher price levels for its long-term trajectory due to the significant market shifts indicated by the crossing of two specific moving averages.
Instead of using shorter-term and longer-term moving averages (MA), let’s call them short MA (considering the last 111 days of price data) and long MA (averaging the past 350 days, then multiplying it by two). The underlying concept is that when these two MAs intersect, a possible peak in market price may be approaching, signaling a potential sell-off point before a market downturn. This strategy has been traditionally used with Bitcoin analysis, but as shown by Kevin, it can also prove useful for Dogecoin.
Kevin’s graph showcases several years of Dogecoin’s price fluctuations, prominently indicating past peak and trough points where the Pi Cycle Indicator has proven reliable. The marked high points on the chart are from January 2018 and May 2021, which align with the intersection of two moving averages and subsequent price spikes.
At the moment, the price trend is clearly climbing higher, and though the two moving averages are drawing nearer, they haven’t intersected yet. The graph indicates a potential resistance point at approximately $4.00, which corresponds to a 1.618 Fibonacci extension level.
In simpler terms, Kevin uses a tool called the Pi Cycle tops indicator for Dogecoin that’s typically used with Bitcoin. This tool has correctly predicted every peak and trough in Dogecoin’s cycles. When the two moving averages cross and the Monthly RSI reaches a specific level, he intends to sell a large amount of his holdings. At the moment, the moving averages are moving towards each other but haven’t crossed yet, suggesting that we might see further increases before they do.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.38.
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2024-11-19 17:28