Easy Money Glitch: How to Win Big on Oscar Bets 2025! (Source: Trust Me, Bro)

Come on, betting your cash on sports outcomes can be pretty stupid. After all, predicting who will win is the challenge of football, right? But what if you had someone with real expertise in their field? Someone who claims to know better than the top bookmakers, someone who’s been following the Oscars since 2012 and happens to be EarlyGame’s go-to guy for movies and finance? Well, here are my educated guesses for the 2025 Academy Awards.

Here’s an easy-to-understand way of explaining decimal odds from a fan’s perspective:

In this gaming setup, the numbers in parentheses represent the potential winnings relative to your bet. For example, if the number is 2, it means that for every dollar you wager, you could potentially win two dollars back if your prediction comes true. In other words, a $1 bet would yield $2 if you’re correct.

However, just to clarify, we don’t use fractional odds in this household. Instead, we prefer the simple and straightforward format of decimal odds.

Best Picture

In the category of Best Picture, a preferential voting system is utilized. Instead of choosing one favorite film, each voter ranks their top 10 selections, from most preferred to least. The movie that gathers more than half (51%) of the votes in first place is declared the winner. If no film receives this majority support, the second-place votes are tallied, and so on, until a film gains over 51% approval. Essentially, the film that most voters find acceptable wins, as those only receiving second place can still be considered for Best Picture.

In this scenario, Oscar voters seem to be leaning towards either “Anora” or “The Brutalist.” However, the lengthy running time of “The Brutalist” (3.5 hours) may deter some voters. On the other hand, “Anora” has a positive depiction of sex workers, but the Intimate Coordinator scandal might affect its chances. Considering that most people would likely rank it among their top picks, Sean Baker’s impactful speeches for the independent film community, and the general appreciation for “Anora,” I believe “Anora” will emerge as the winner.

And God forbid Gen Z gets their personal Crash moment when Emilia Perez (81) wins.

Best Director

Typically, the Director and Picture awards often go together, but in this case, I believe we’re looking at an exception. While Sean Baker has certainly delivered a well-crafted film, The Brutalist by Brady Corbet is something extraordinary. Filmed on 70mm, running for over three and a half hours with no dull moments, all on a budget under $10 million? That’s an outstanding directorial feat. And it is Brady Corbet who takes the win.

Leading Actor

In a twist of irony, despite the general trend that male actors often win Oscars later in their careers, Adrien Brody stands out as the youngest ever leading actor Oscar winner in 2003. His victory, coupled with the Academy’s disregard for the “he’s already won before” factor, makes him a strong contender. Timothée Chalamet’s ambitious statement at the SAG Awards might have given some voters pause, as it could be perceived as overly eager, much like Bradley Cooper. Nonetheless, I believe Adrien Brody deserves this win for his exceptional performance. Therefore, the winner is Adrien Brody.

Leading Actress

As a passionate gamer, I’ve got to admit, it’s a challenging choice between Demi Moore in The Substance and Mikey Madison in Anora. Demi has an impressive 40-year career, and her role is one where she battles fiercely to resist being replaced by someone younger – a performance that could easily earn an Oscar. The script for this potential win seems almost perfect.

However, my instincts lean towards Mikey Madison. You know, like when everyone expected Roma to win Best Picture, but Parasite took the stage as a foreign language film? I believe the same surprise might happen here.

Moore’s nomination for an outstanding portrayal in a horror film is a precious jewel, particularly following oversights such as Mia Goth in Pearl and Lupita Nyong’o in Us. However, victory isn’t imminent at this point. Moreover, the notion that Sylvester Stallone could triumph for his iconic self-penned role in Rocky during Creed after a long career in the industry? That’s not how it usually goes. Instead, they opted for Mark Rylance, who only recently entered the film industry. The award instead went to Mikey Madison.

Supporting Actor

If you place your bet on anyone other than Kieran Culkin (1.06), it suggests a lack of sanity. A $100 wager on him would earn you $106. For instance, a $100 wager on Edward Norton (17), the runner-up, would bring in $1,700. I genuinely believe that Culkin has given the best performance of the year with his exceptional portrayal of the charismatic yet depressed Benji. While Guy Pearce (30) and Yura Borisov (24) were commendable, Culkin has already won all the awards leading up to the Oscars. I found both the movie and Culkin’s performance captivating. So, Kieran Culkin takes the crown.

Supporting Actress

In a nutshell, Zoe Saldana (1.09) shines brightest in Emilia Perez, while no other actor comes close – not Isabella Rossellini (24) with her brief appearance in Conclave, nor Ariana Grande (11) in Wicked, or Felicity Joney in The Brutalist. Even with Guy Pearce and Adrien Brody outshining her, Saldana’s exceptional performance is still the most noticeable, having won every award to date. So, it can be said that Zoe Saldana takes the top prize.

Original Screenplay

1) On September 5th, being included on this list could bring good fortune. Unfortunately, The Brutalist’s screenplay didn’t receive any awards, despite deserving more recognition. So, we’re left with a competition between three strong contenders. As I mentioned earlier, A Real Pain (6.5) won the BAFTA for Original Screenplay, but due to its lack of Best Picture nomination, I doubt Eisenberg will take the prize this time around.

Here’s my personal opinion: I’m not a fan of the Substance (5) screenplay. It seems unfair that Demi Moore’s character endures so much hardship only to be replaced by someone younger. However, in the movie, it’s never revealed that Margaret Qualley is actually born from Moore’s character – they simply move on with their stories. On the other hand, Sean Baker, using the Anora (1.4) script, has created compelling, multi-dimensional characters such as lovable Russian gangsters Igor and the most detestable character of 2024, Ivan. Therefore, my pick would be Anora.

Adapted Screenplay

The Nickel Boys at age 11 is an impactful movie that I wholeheartedly recommend and consider it a strong contender for the second place according to bookmakers. On the other hand, Conclave is simply an exceptional thriller featuring compelling characters. Thus, Conclave takes the top spot.

Best Song

Hello there fellow film enthusiast! It’s a shame to say, but you’re stepping into the least populated Oscar category in the annals of the Academy Awards history. In 2012, it was narrowed down to just two nominees – yes, you heard that correctly, only two! The music branch, being the smallest in the Academy, seems to be reflecting this.

Diane Warren, a name synonymous with melodies, has been nominated an astounding 16 times without a single victory under her belt. I’m not making this up – movies like “Tell It Like a Woman,” which grossed a mere $12,765 at the box office (not even from a streaming service), and Tyler Perry’s “The Journey” with its song “The Six Triple Eight” are some of her nominations. Excuse my language, but we’re talking about a TYLER PERRY MOVIE here? Are you kidding me!?

In essence, neither place your bet on ‘El Mal’ (1.36) by Emilia Perez nor listen to it live this year. To put it bluntly, are these songs, particularly ‘El Mal’, poor quality? Yes, indeed! Is it superior to ‘La Vaginoplastia’? Surprisingly, yes again! So, I guess there’s no winner; they all seem undeserving of success.

Best Documentary Short

In 2016, Louis CK made fun of the Oscar nominees, stating that even though they were all millionaires, they still put their Oscars in their modest homes. Interestingly, this isn’t just a joke – it’s based on truth. Since very few people watch Documentary Short and Live Action Short films, Academy rules require voters to have seen these movies. It seems the Academy is so eager for recognition that they’ll accept any film, even if it’s not particularly significant. The winners in the Documentary Short category from 2019 to 2022 include Period. End of Sentence., Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl), Colette, and The Queen of Basketball – all films that aim to make an impact.

This year’s winner seems to be an unexpected choice: “The Only Girl in the Orchestra.” Despite I’m Ready Warren being the bookmakers’ favorite and Incident, a powerful short film about a Black man killed by police, being highly acclaimed, neither of them are the chosen one. It’s unfortunate that Incident, despite its poignant title, doesn’t give away its subject matter easily.

High Risk, High Reward

If you decide to wager on all my predictions, your betting slip will display odds of approximately 164.38. This means that if you stake $10, you could potentially win around $1,643. But remember, if any of the predictions don’t come true, you won’t receive anything. You could choose to bet on fewer predictions to minimize risk and secure smaller winnings instead.

If you managed to read through all of this and even found it slightly intriguing without being compensated for it, feel free to reach out to me in private messages on social media – since we’ve technically become legally bound to wed each other. I didn’t create the rules, you know!

What are your predictions? Do you insist on a prenup? Tell me in the comments!

2025-02-28 17:46