In the third week of January 2024, preceding the second inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a decrease in bullish movement. Over the past week, its price has fallen by more than 6%, dropping to approximately $93K as I’m writing this. The 24h volatility stands at 3.7%, while the market capitalization is around $1.80 trillion. In the last 24 hours, a volume of $39.88 billion has been traded.
Even though the crypto-leveraged market saw increased bearish volatility, just $313 million worth of trades were liquidated. Notably, most of these transactions involved long traders. This finding led Santiment, a market intelligence platform, to suggest that the cryptocurrency industry is experiencing a sort of trading freeze, fueled by anticipation for a potential market rebound.
Top Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Dropped Today
The high-value Bitcoin investors seem less interested in buying Bitcoin as smaller traders are exiting the turbulent cryptocurrency market. Based on the analysis of blockchain data, Bitcoin’s network activity has declined to a level not seen since November 2024, with approximately 667,100 active addresses.
Over the past month, the number of substantial Bitcoin transactions has decreased by approximately 51%, going from 33,450 to 16,180. This significant decrease in “whale” activity was clear when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $149 million last Friday, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the way as a major Bitcoin buyer.
The apprehension about Donald Trump’s inauguration as President causing a ‘buy-the-news’ market trend in cryptocurrencies has led to a pessimistic outlook among crypto investors. For the past year, these investors have been anticipating Trump’s re-election, which was indeed confirmed through the 2024 elections.
It’s important to mention that the total amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges grew by approximately 2,729 units over the last day, reaching roughly 2.19 million at this moment. Additionally, the overall Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has dropped by around $6 billion in recent days, currently sitting at around $60 billion. This decline could suggest a potential correction in the near future.
Midterm Targets
As per experienced trader Peter Brandt’s analysis, Bitcoin’s price appears to be shaping like a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern following a significant level of resistance near $100K. Moreover, over the last few weeks, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been showing a downward divergence.
According to Brandt’s analysis, for the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern to be confirmed, the Bitcoin price should consistently dip below the H&S pattern’s neckline, which is approximately $92K. If this happens, he anticipates that the Bitcoin price could potentially drop to a range between $75K and $77.5K.
The trader mentioned that there might be a potential bear trap forming with BTC’s price, indicating a likely bounce back around $92,000. If this scenario occurs, Brandt predicts that the Bitcoin price could surge towards a peak of between $125,000 and $150,000 in the second half of 2025.
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2025-01-13 15:30