As a seasoned moviegoer and box office analyst with decades of experience under my belt, I must say this pre-Thanksgiving weekend has been nothing short of spectacular! The cinematic offerings have been top-notch, from the epic saga of Gladiator II to the enchanting world of Wicked.
It seems that what was needed to revitalize the box office was a hit movie, and that’s exactly what happened with the release of “Wicked.” After enduring a lengthy lull due to films like “Joker: Folie a Deux” and questionable scheduling by major studios, the domestic box office had been struggling for nearly two months. However, the impressive opening weekend of “Wicked” marked the first time in nearly three months that a film grossed over $100 million domestically. To add to this success, “Gladiator II” also performed well, emphasizing the importance of having various films for audiences to choose from. Let’s delve into the remarkable performance of “Wicked,” which shattered expectations for how successful non-Disney musicals could be at the box office.
Previously, the highest-grossing North American box office for a film based on a Broadway musical was “Into the Woods” with an earnings of $31 million. Generally, these films premiere around or on Christmas Day in December. This release strategy means they debut before Friday (whichever day of the week Christmas is on), which weakens their opening weekend earnings. Even if these movies typically opened on Fridays, no other adaptation of a Broadway musical could have approached “Wicked’s” astounding $114 million debut in just three days. In this short span, “Wicked” surpassed the total domestic earnings of “Dreamgirls” and 2014’s “Annie”. It also achieved the third-highest domestic opening weekend of 2024, the seventh-best premiere ever for Universal Pictures, and the second-largest opening weekend for a live-action domestic musical, trailing only behind “Beauty and the Beast’s” massive $174 million bow.
On the first day of its release, the movie “Wicked,” directed by Jon M. Chu, became Cynthia Erivo’s highest-grossing film to date, outperforming the earnings of “Harriet” which was $43.08 million. Meanwhile, “Chaos Walking” might be found somewhere, vainly protesting “Halt the tally!” as it grapples with opening a can of tuna in a dilapidated shack. “Wicked” opened 51% ahead of “Oz the Great and Powerful’s” $79.1 million domestic launch back in March 2013, a film you may recall? Its debut was only slightly behind “Alice in Wonderland’s” $116 million start from March 2010, and significantly surpassed the North American openings of both “The Jungle Book” and “The Little Mermaid,” when considering modern big-budget fantasy family films.
For this massive triumph, Universal has been tirelessly promoting it for the past nine months, starting with a lengthy Super Bowl commercial and followed by numerous marketing tie-ins. The excitement of watching a cherished Broadway production on the big screen, combined with the timeless charm of Oz, probably drew in countless viewers to catch Wicked. Moreover, the film’s positive word-of-mouth and an advertising strategy highlighting vibrant colors and energetic vibes made it even more appealing. Indeed, such family-friendly entertainment tends to thrive during the holiday season.
As a devoted admirer, I must admit that while everyone knew Wicked would be successful, the extent to which it’s surpassing expectations in the domestic box office is nothing short of astounding. In terms of live-action musicals, only Aladdin, Beauty and the Beast, and Wonka have managed to gross over $200 million domestically. For a long time, the highest a non-Disney live-action musical could aspire was the $181.8 million North American take of Grease. However, Wicked is shattering that ceiling with an unprecedented domestic run that’s only just begun after its opening weekend. It’s certainly on track to earn between $350-375 million domestically. Could it break free from the constraints of gravity and reach even greater heights? As one of Chu’s earliest directing works would say…never count it out!
It wasn’t all Wicked at the box office this weekend, though. Gladiator II also delivered robust numbers, grossing $57 million. Glicked didn’t prove as lucrative as Barbenheimer, and, alas, we didn’t get another instance of two movies simultaneously opening to $60+ million domestically. Looking at this Box Office Mojo page from August 2019 and considering the various $60+ million opening weekends of the 2020s, it appears that only two other times in history have two movies simultaneously bowed to $60+ million.
In the timeframes of June 21-23, 2013 and July 21-23, 2023, two movies each – “Monsters University” and “World War Z,” followed by “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” – made their debuts. It’s not common for two new films to gross a significant amount together, so let’s call this occurrence MewTwo because it’s quite unusual. Unfortunately, this pre-Thanksgiving weekend couldn’t make it a trio, but “Gladiator II” still managed a substantial earning of $55.5 million. This is Ridley Scott’s second-highest North American opening ever, trailing only behind “Hannibal.
In a surprising turn of events, this historical epic marked Denzel Washington’s largest debut in this region yet and outperformed the opening weekend of the original Gladiator by 35%. Given the uncertainty around whether audiences would embrace another Gladiator-like film without Russell Crowe, these numbers are truly astounding. The question remained: Would this movie still draw crowds without him? Adding to the intrigue, Paul Mescal made his major Hollywood debut in this film, though he’s not yet a familiar face to many. Despite Mescal’s Oscar nomination, he’s hardly a household name. To boost its appeal, Paramount heavily marketed the film, emphasizing stars like Denzel Washington and Pedro Pascal while tapping into nostalgia for its Academy Award-winning predecessor. The lack of other significant R-rated epics in the current market likely contributed to its success as well.
It appears that Gladiator II didn’t show strong initial box office performance over the weekend, but there’s a possibility that its earnings could reach up to $165-170 million in domestic markets if it manages to maintain a significant number of screens during the last weeks of December.
Over the weekend, the film titled “Red One” saw a drop of nearly 60%, earning $13.28 million, bringing its total domestic gross to $52.9 million over 10 days. Whether it can maintain this momentum will significantly impact its overall domestic earnings, as traditionally, holiday movies experience a slight increase in revenue around Thanksgiving. Achieving $100 million in North America for “Red One” is still plausible, but the chances don’t look promising. Meanwhile, “Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin” has performed similarly to other post-Sound of Freedom Angel Studios releases. It made $5.12 million this weekend in 1,900 theaters and is expected to earn between $13-15 million before its run ends. This isn’t a poor performance, but it’s also not particularly impressive.
Over the weekend, “Venom: The Last Dance” continued to play in 2,558 locations but saw a drop of 45%, earning an additional $4 million. In North America, its total now stands at $133.8 million. Notably, among the top ten films, “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” displayed the best weekend-to-weekend retention, dipping by just 33% and adding another $3.5 million to its tally. With a current total of $25.5 million after 17 days, it appears set to end its domestic run with earnings between $40-45 million. This is quite impressive for a family movie that cost $10 million to produce. On the other hand, “Heretic” lost 55% this weekend, bringing in an additional $2.3 million and now totalling $24.76 million domestically. With Thanksgiving week ahead, it’s expected to surpass $30 million domestically, making it only the eighth A24 movie to cross that threshold in North America.
After debuting a larger drop in attendance from one weekend to the next, “The Wild Robot” was influenced by the arrival of Universal Pictures’ PG-rated film “Wicked”. Earning $2 million during its ninth week in theaters, “The Wild Robot” reached a grand total of $140.7 million within the U.S., surpassing its initial opening weekend earnings by four times. On the other hand, “A Real Pain” experienced a 50% decrease in its second limited release weekend, adding another $1.1 million to its domestic tally, now at $4.9 million. Lastly, despite significant theater losses, “Conclave” managed to bring in an additional $1.1 million this weekend for a strong overall domestic total of $28.96 million.
Greetings, the movie “Hello, Love, Again” experienced a 58% decrease in viewership this weekend and earned an additional $1 million. This relatively unknown film has already made an impressive $4.8 million within U.S. theaters, never having been screened in more than 248 cinemas. Over the weekend, “Anora” lost approximately 1000 screens due to competition from movies like “Wicked” and “Gladiator II“. This trend highlights a common challenge faced by independent films today – with blockbusters like “Red One” occupying thousands of screens, it’s challenging for indies to keep their screens and build momentum. Consequently, “Anora’s” earnings dropped 62% this weekend, bringing in $675,000 more. Despite a decrease in viewership, “Parasite‘s” domestic earnings compared to previous weekends have finally started to decline, but with “Anora” having earned $12.02 million so far, it’s still considered profitable.
The movie “Flow” had an impressive debut with Janus Films, earning $50,764 across two cinemas, translating to a remarkable $25,382 per cinema on its opening day. Meanwhile, the limited-release premiere of “Porcelain War” generated $11,227 at just one theater.
This past weekend, the ten highest grossing films earned a total of $192 million, which is quite impressive when compared to previous pre-Thanksgiving weekends. To be specific, it surpasses the 2018 pre-Thanksgiving weekend earnings of $161.4 million and slightly outperforms the 2019 pre-Thanksgiving weekend total of $190.1 million. However, it falls short of the all-time highest pre-Thanksgiving weekend hauls in 2009 ($250 million), 2012 ($242.3 million), and 2013 (218.3 million). These years had a larger number of films in release compared to this year, as Hollywood didn’t solely focus on Thanksgiving-adjacent titles. For instance, in 2009, Sony/Columbia Pictures launched the disaster movie “2012” a week before the pre-Thanksgiving frame, and in 2012, the wide release expansion of “Lincoln” dominated the pre-Thanksgiving weekend.
Despite the financial success of recent weekends like Glicked, there’s still a chance for me to repeat my consistent plea: theaters require more films in circulation. In 2012 before Thanksgiving, four movies earned over $18 million each; six did so in 2009. However, this year, only three surpassed $5.5 million. Even the impressive box office performances of Wicked and Gladiator II couldn’t hide this issue. On a positive note, the influx of people from various backgrounds attending their local cinemas this weekend underscores that audiences adore going to movies; they just need more films to watch.
On many occasions, a highly anticipated pre-Thanksgiving film takes over the box office during the Thanksgiving weekend, such as The Twilight Saga: New Moon and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Parts One and Two. But Wicked won’t hold its reign for long, as another new release is about to cause quite a stir in the market. Moana 2, which is soon to be released, is poised to become one of the largest Thanksgiving openings ever recorded.
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2024-11-25 15:15