As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience navigating the volatile and ever-evolving digital asset market, I find myself intrigued by this recent prediction that Bitcoin could peak around mid-2025, possibly coinciding with a US recession.
The upward trend for Bitcoin (BTC) might continue up until mid-2025, possibly reaching its highest point prior to an onset of a U.S. economic downturn.
Bitcoin Could Peak In Mid-2025 Before US Recession
According to a fresh report from a crypto research organization, they believe that the top cryptocurrency in terms of market value may continue its upward trend till mid-2025.
Starting from November 13, Bitcoin has been in its 555th day of the current market cycle. It’s possible that the digital asset could reach its price peak within the next approximately 200 days. It’s worth mentioning that this potential price peak might align with a projected US economic recession, estimated to occur around mid-2025.
Based on the findings from the report, the typical duration for Bitcoin’s market cycles is approximately 756 days. These cycles commence when the yearly average increase in Bitcoin’s market value becomes positive, and conclude as the price reaches its highest point.
The report signifies the commencement of the ongoing market cycle approximately midway through 2023, with BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin ETF being submitted shortly thereafter.
If Bitcoin follows its past price trends, it could potentially reach its highest point within this cycle by approximately mid-2025.
According to figures provided by JPMorgan, it’s predicted that a U.S. recession may occur around mid-2025. This could mean that the top value of Bitcoin might coincide with an expected economic slump in the United States.
According to the Treasury spread analysis conducted by JPMorgan, there’s roughly a 45% likelihood that a U.S. recession might occur before the middle of 2025.
The report emphasizes that the peak price of Bitcoin has not been matched by its actual volatility yet. To put it simply, realized volatility indicates how much Bitcoin’s prices vary over a given timeframe, calculating the standard deviation of its performance compared to the average market return.
In simpler terms, the volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) right now is about 50% of what it was during the peak of past bull markets, showing that its volatility still has some way to go before reaching those levels.
Another bullish technical indicator for the BTC price trajectory is its filtered relative strength index (RSI). The report reads:
At present, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, which is significantly lower than its past peaks during bull markets. This suggests that Bitcoin still has ample potential to gain traction and grow further as we move into the new year.
BTC Could Rise Further, But Caution Is Necessary
Since Donald Trump, a supporter of cryptocurrency, won the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, the digital asset market has experienced a steady increase in value.
Remarkably, the growing sector has recently seen its overall market value exceed $3 trillion for the first time since last November in 2021.
It’s no wonder that the overall value of the cryptocurrency market, mainly fueled by Bitcoin, has increased, as rumors suggest the Trump administration may follow in the footsteps of El Salvador and create a strategic Bitcoin reserve similar to theirs.
The extraordinary surge in Bitcoin’s value has pushed its overall market capitalization past that of silver, making it the 8th most valuable global asset in terms of market capitalization when compared to all existing assets.
Keeping this perspective, it’s intriguing to watch how the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) evolves over the next few weeks, particularly since it was recently turned down near the $90,000 mark.
As I observe from my vantage point, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) metric is marginally over 60%. A potential drop in this indicator might suggest a shift in investor interest, moving capital away from Bitcoin and into alternative cryptocurrencies. This transition could potentially yield favorable outcomes for smaller digital assets.
At the moment of reporting, Bitcoin is being traded at approximately $87,767, marking a 1.1% increase over the previous 24 hours. Currently, its overall market value stands at an impressive $1.738 trillion.
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2024-11-14 05:47