Bitcoin Records $75,000 All-Time High: Here’s If BTC Is ‘Overheated’ Now

As a seasoned researcher with years of experience in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, I find myself intrigued by the latest insights into Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MRVRV) Ratio. This ratio, as an essential on-chain metric, offers valuable insights into whether Bitcoin is currently overheated or not.


Based on the analysis of the well-known Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MRVRV) Ratio, we can determine if Bitcoin’s current state is overinflated or not.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Risen Alongside The Latest Rally

In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst delved into the MVRV Ratio associated with Bitcoin. Essentially, the “MVRV Ratio” is a measure derived from Bitcoin’s on-chain data that calculates the ratio between its market value and realized value. The market value here refers to the total worth of all circulating Bitcoins at their current market price. Conversely, the realized value is another way of calculating the asset’s capitalization, but it uses a more complex methodology.

As a researcher, I approach each digital token differently from simply considering their market capitalization. Instead, I assume that the most recent transaction price for each token serves as a more accurate reflection of its inherent worth, rather than treating every coin equally within circulation.

In simpler terms, the last place a coin was exchanged can be considered its previous transaction location. Therefore, the Realized Capitalization (or realized cap) calculates the total cost at which all circulating coins were acquired.

This model can be interpreted as a representation of the total investment made by all investors collectively into the cryptocurrency. In comparison, the market capitalization indicates the current worth of these investors’ holdings.

When the MVRM (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio surpasses 1, it indicates that the current market capitalization exceeds the realized capitalization. This pattern implies that overall, investors are experiencing a state of collective net profit.

Conversely, if the indicator falls below that level, it suggests that the typical investor is currently losing money because they own their assets at a price lower than what they initially paid for them.

In the graph presented, you can see that the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio soared to considerable heights when Bitcoin exceeded its November 2021 record high during the first quarter of this year. Although there has been an increase in this metric after the latest ATH was breached, it is important to note that it has not yet reached the same peak levels as earlier in the year.

Historically, the value of cryptocurrency tends to peak when the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator reaches significant heights. However, as our analyst has noted in the chart, the definition of a ‘high’ MVRV level appears to be decreasing over the recent cycles.

According to the analyst’s analysis and trendline, we might expect Bitcoin’s current cycle to reach its peak when the MVRV Ratio reaches approximately 3. Currently, the MVRV Ratio stands at 2, suggesting that there could be some time left before Bitcoin starts showing signs of overheating.

When the MVRV Ratio increases significantly, it’s because more and more investors are likely to sell off their assets as they stand to make larger profits, thereby causing the asset to heat up due to increased selling activity.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $74,100, up almost 8% over the last 24 hours.

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2024-11-07 12:04