As a seasoned researcher with years of experience analyzing market trends and crypto dynamics, I find myself intrigued by the current state of Bitcoin. The past week has been a rollercoaster ride for BTC investors, with the price dipping after a near miss at the all-time high last Tuesday. This 7% decline is hard to ignore on the weekly chart, especially when it takes the form of a gravestone doji, which historically can indicate a potential reversal. However, I’m not entirely convinced that we’ve seen the last of Bitcoin’s bullish run just yet.
Over the past five days, the Bitcoin price has dropped daily candles in the red since it came very close to reaching its record high of $73,620 last Tuesday. Consequently, the BTC value has dipped approximately 7%. This downward trend is clearly visible on the weekly chart, where a large bearish candle, known as a gravestone doji, can be seen.
A Chartered Market Technician (CMT) named Aksel Kibar, through X, observed a similarity between the BTCUSD weekly candle and gold, which he suggested could signal an upcoming reversal. However, he cautioned that this pattern alone is not reliable; instead, it’s best to look for a subsequent weak candle to confirm the trend reversal. The current market sentiment is that the bulls aim to reach new highs during the session, but the bears manage to push the price back close to its opening level by the end of the session.
Bitcoin To Hit $75,000 By End Of November?
Although there are recent developments, QCP Capital – a cryptocurrency trading company based in Singapore – continues to express optimism in their most recent report for investors. They have emphasized notable changes in both political forecasting platforms and Bitcoin derivative markets.
As an analyst, I’ve been observing the trends on the decentralized prediction market, Polymarket. Interestingly, the odds have shifted towards being more aligned with actual poll estimates, suggesting a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Previously, Trump held a 66% favoritism on Polymarket, but this has dropped to 55%, signifying a narrowing margin that seems to be in line with the broader polling data.
The company also observed a general sense of caution in the cryptocurrency market. Over the weekend, there was a trend of prices moving sideways, and there was a reduction in leveraged perpetual futures positions – from $30 billion to $26 billion across various platforms. This suggests that traders are taking a ‘let’s wait and see’ stance. This dip might be caused by doubts about macroeconomic conditions or the approaching election.
Despite some uncertainty in the market, QCP Capital anticipates a possible steep increase in Bitcoin’s value. They wonder if this could be a prelude to a break from the prolonged price range and a surge towards record highs. Their optimism is backed by an observed rise in long positions, with a significant purchase of $75,000 call options since last Friday. This sudden increase in these options indicates that traders are preparing for a substantial Bitcoin rally by the end of November.
Furthermore, it was emphasized that there’s been a surge in positions linked to the election date. As QCP pointed out, “Positions related to the election date are also growing,” and the anticipated volatility for Friday surpassed 87%, despite actual volatility being at 40%. This heightened anticipated volatility suggests that options traders foresee substantial price fluctuations during the election period.
Moving forward, QCP Capital anticipates Bitcoin’s current price range to persist until there is greater certainty about the US election outcomes. The firm explained that they foresee the price fluctuating within this range until we gain more insight into the election results over the coming days. They also suggested that a victory for Donald Trump could potentially trigger an immediate price increase, while a win by Kamala Harris might lead to a reverse reaction.
At press time, BTC traded at $68,852.
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2024-11-05 00:04