As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for navigating market volatility, I can’t help but feel a mix of excitement and caution as we approach the US presidential election. The Bitcoin price has been teasing us at this tantalizing $68,000-$69,000 range, just shy of its all-time high. It’s like watching a roller coaster climb the first hill, knowing that the real fun comes after the drop – or soaring upwards if things go well.
Approaching the U.S. presidential election, the price of Bitcoin has been steadily holding within a supportive range near its previous annual peak at around $68,000 to $69,000, slightly below its record high reached earlier in 2021.
Although the cryptocurrency hasn’t yet managed to break through a notable threshold, investors maintain a guardedly hopeful outlook, anticipating potential price rises while also bracing for possible market fluctuations within the next few hours.
Bitcoin Price Expected To Swing 8% Post-Election
As a researcher, I’ve observed that the Bitcoin options market predicts potential volatility of around 8% post-election, a significant spike from the usual 2% price swings experienced during regular trading days.
Caroline Mauron, one of the founders at Orbit Markets – a company specializing in providing liquidity for crypto derivatives – pointed out that “there’s no substantial volatility premium factored in post-November 7th,” implying the market seems to expect a relatively quick resolution to the election outcomes.
The election pits Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, with both candidates eliciting varied responses from the crypto community.
Trump’s positive view on cryptocurrencies makes Bitcoin a key component in what’s been dubbed “Trump trades.” This is particularly relevant considering the stricter regulations imposed during President Joe Biden’s term.
The fluctuations in Trump’s betting market odds seem to be reflected in the Bitcoin market, with its value temporarily approaching all-time highs only to pull back when polls suggest a closely fought election.
In October, the mood among traders appears to be well-balanced, as there’s roughly equal representation of both pessimistic (bearish) and optimistic (bullish) positions in the options market. This suggests that they are readying themselves for potential price increases and decreases, as the election approaches.
Data obtained from the Deribit exchange indicates a possible trading range of $60,000 to $80,000 for Bitcoin’s price over the coming weeks, as suggested by the highest level of open interest in option contracts around that period following the election.
Path To $100,000 Remains Viable
crypto expert Miles Deutscher expressed on social media that if Donald Trump wins the election, it might cause an instant increase in Bitcoin’s value, possibly reaching a new record high this year.
Instead, the analyst indicates that if Harris wins, it could cause a decrease in price, pushing potential new highs to Q1 2025 aside. However, Deutscher is certain about Bitcoin reaching $100,000 regardless of the election result.
Market analyst Patric H. provides an additional perspective, noting that Bitcoin ended the previous week above a daily downward trendline, hinting at a possible price turnaround.
Patrick points out that the candlestick pattern for the week suggests vulnerability, leading investors to reduce their risk positions ahead of the election. His optimistic view relies on Bitcoin maintaining an upward trend above $65,000; if it falls below this level, it might signal a resurgence of high price fluctuations.
From a trading perspective, data indicates that perpetual traders on Binance have withdrawn limit buy orders below $50,000, suggesting a shift in sentiment.
Earlier, a large number of investors showed considerable interest in the Bitcoin price range of approximately $42,000 to $50,000, which is worth billions. However, it seems they have shifted their investment towards higher prices. The next major buy order for Bitcoin is set at $63,800, and there are smaller orders leading down to this level. This suggests that the price of Bitcoin might not drop much below this point.
Positively speaking, the estimated next resistance point for Bitcoin’s price stands at approximately $73,000, as this area has shown notable selling interest from Coinbase and Binance. Patrick predicts a possible rejection in the vicinity of $75,000 to $76,000, which could potentially lead to a breakout if these levels can be surpassed successfully.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,360, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours.
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2024-11-04 19:53