As a seasoned analyst with over three decades of experience in the financial markets, I find myself cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s recent price surge. While the digital asset is within striking distance of its all-time high, I share Peter Brandt’s sentiment that we should exercise caution before declaring a confirmed breakout.
As Bitcoin (BTC) nears its record peak, enthusiasm is growing amongst investors. Nevertheless, experienced analyst Peter Brandt encourages a cautious approach, suggesting that while bullishness is warranted, it’s essential not to become overly rigid in one’s convictions.
Bitcoin Breakout Yet To Be Confirmed
Following a less-than-impressive beginning to October, traditionally a strong month for Bitcoin, the digital currency is currently being traded at approximately $71,789, which is about 3% below its all-time high (ATH) of $73,737 set in March 2021.
In the current excitement about a potential all-time high in the cryptocurrency market, seasoned analyst and dealer Brandt believes that several prerequisites need to be met to confirm a genuine breakout.
On October 29th, Brandt advised Bitcoin optimists to refrain from excessive excitement until there’s technical evidence of a breakthrough. (Published on X)
To put it simply, the analyst advised the buyers to be mindful of the constraints associated with diagonal structures on graphs, especially those that have oblique boundaries.
Brandt pointed out that even though nicking the borderline could provoke the bulls, it doesn’t necessarily mean a successful breach has occurred.
To ensure authenticity, Brandt predicts a potential peak of $76,000 for Bitcoin. This prediction is valid only if the daily chart manages to surpass the $76,000 mark and the average true range (ATR) reading corroborates this rise, exceeding the previous high Bitcoin reached in March.
For beginners, the ATR (Average True Range) is a tool used in technical analysis to estimate market volatility. By averaging true price differences over a specific timeframe, usually 14 days, it provides insights into an asset’s movement. This information assists traders in predicting possible price swings and setting wiser stop-loss and profit goals based on the asset’s potential fluctuations.
Additionally, Brandt points out that for the breakout to be considered genuine, it needs to be confirmed by a closing price at midnight UTC on Sunday. This helps prevent misleading bullish investors from being caught in what could be a false breakout.
On the weekly chart, Brandt highlighted that Bitcoin’s recent advance “has only nicked important chart points,” rather than breaking through with conviction.
Based on the analysis, it seems that Bitcoin’s price still has a significant amount of movement before establishing a clear new support level.
Important To Overcome $71,000 – $73,000 Resistance Level
0xAmberCT, another cryptocurrency analyst, emphasized the crucial role of the robust resistance area near $71,000 to $73,000. Nevertheless, the analyst offered various explanations suggesting that this occasion could differ from previous ones.
Initially, a likely win by the U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump could potentially ignite the necessary energy to kickstart the broader cryptocurrency market’s anticipated Q4 2024 surge.
As I pen this analysis, Polymarket predicts that Donald Trump stands a 66.5% likelihood of winning, while his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, has a 33.5% chance. Should Trump emerge victorious, it is anticipated to be beneficial for the digital assets sector.
Furthermore, the latest decrease in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the growing likelihood of a “soft landing” may stimulate investors’ willingness to take on risk. Assets that thrive in a risky market, such as Bitcoin, are anticipated to gain from lower interest rates.
As a cryptocurrency investor, I’m optimistic about the forecast that Bitcoin could potentially surge to $80,000 by the end of 2024, as suggested by Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. This prediction seems to be in line with the analysts’ expectations.
However, crypto analyst Cole Garner recently shared that BTC might head lower before achieving a new ATH due to tightening on-chain liquidity. BTC trades at $71,789 at press time, up 4% in the past 24 hours.
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2024-10-30 13:35