Bitcoin To Hit $125,000 By Year-End If Trump Wins, Says Standard Chartered

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As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in financial markets, I have learned to take predictions with a grain of salt – especially when they are as bold as Geoff Kendrick’s Bitcoin price forecast. While I find his analysis intriguing and well-researched, I must admit that I am skeptical about the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $125,000 by the end of this year, even if Trump secures victory in the upcoming US presidential election.

According to a research paper published on October 24, Geoff Kendrick, who serves as the Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, foresees that Bitcoin might reach $125,000 by the end of the year if Donald Trump wins the upcoming US presidential election.

When Bitcoin Could Hit $125,000

Kendrick’s research is based on the relationship between Bitcoin’s price fluctuations and the political climate of the United States. In his report titled “Bitcoin – Post-US Election Strategy,” he says they utilize daily Bitcoin volume levels and commonly used strike prices to predict post-election price changes. Kendrick explains that the rise in Bitcoin prices lately corresponds with other trades preferred by Trump’s supporters.

The analysis predicts that the value of Bitcoin could ascend to approximately $73,000 by November 5, which is close to its peak record of $73,800 achieved in March. In simpler terms, as per the prediction, Bitcoin might climb up to around $73,000 by Election Day, aligning with speculations that suggest a Trump victory.

As a researcher, I am observing an intriguing trend in the betting markets. Based on data from RealClearPolitics, the probability of a Trump victory is currently estimated to be approximately 59%. Moreover, delving into more specific betting markets like Polymarket, there seems to be a 75% chance that a Republican sweep will occur if President Trump secures another term.

If Trump wins the election, I’m expecting an immediate surge in the price of Bitcoin, with a potential rise of approximately 4% as soon as the result becomes clear, and roughly another 6% increase over the following days, according to my analysis.

If the Republicans win a majority sweep in Congress, then our year-end goal of reaching USD 125,000 may become more likely, according to Kendrick’s viewpoint. This prediction is supported by substantial demand for Bitcoin call options set to expire on December 27 at $80,000, indicating a strong possibility of approaching that level quickly.

What If Harris Wins?

If Vice President Kamala Harris were to win the election, it is predicted that Bitcoin prices might experience a short-term dip first. However, according to Kendrick’s projections, Bitcoin could still hit new highs of around $75,000 by the end of 2024. This indicates a robust long-term perspective for Bitcoin, although the exact pace of growth may vary depending on the election result.

Kendrick highlights that data from the options market can be crucial for predicting future price fluctuations, as he puts it, “Options data can help forecast initial price shifts following an election.” The high trading volumes and commonly used strike levels in these markets provide insights into investors’ anticipations and strategies regarding the election.

Kendrick thinks this latest drop in Bitcoin’s price to around $65,200 could be one of the last before the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election. He believes that any temporary adjustments in the market might be overshadowed by the approaching political events.

At press time, BTC traded at $67,520.

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2024-10-25 17:46