As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for deciphering market trends and a keen interest in Arthur Hayes’ predictions, I find his analysis both intriguing and informative. His unique approach to interpreting macroeconomic events and their impact on the crypto market is refreshing.
Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, took a walk down memory lane and penned a review titled ‘Volatility Supercycle’. In it, he shared eight short-term market predictions he made, all rooted in the broader market context. Two of these predictions proved accurate, while the other six were off the mark. Despite the mixed outcome, Hayes remains unfazed as he continues to generate income.
Is the Bad Gurl “Yellen or Talkin”?
In November 2023, an American entrepreneur penned a essay titled “Bad Gurl.” In this composition, he foresaw that Janet Yellen, whom he nicknamed “Bad Gurl,” would increase T-bill issuance as US Treasury Secretary. This action, according to him, would deplete funds from the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP). A diminishing RRP would result in more liquidity flooding into the system, causing risk assets to surge.
Additionally, Hayes expressed his belief that the market would become less active around March 2024, as this is when the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) was scheduled to end.
During the period from November 2023 to March 2024, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable 77% price increase. As anticipated, this surge also affected other risk assets such as the S&P 500 Index which rose by 21%, and gold saw a gain of 5%. This prediction turned out to be correct according to Hayes’ forecasts.
During the same month, he proposed two theories: “Yellen” and “Talkin.” In these theories, he suggested that the Bond Tapering Fee Program (BTFP) would likely not be extended due to its perceived inflationary impacts. Regrettably, the end of the BTFP did not have a significant impact on financial markets.
Among the eight predictions, this was the initial error, and Hayes experienced some setbacks on his minor Bitcoin investment as well.
More Predictions From Arthur Hayes Goes Wrong
About a month down the line, the subsequent essay was named “Heatwave.” In essence, it forecasted that the US tax season would lead to a drop in cryptocurrency prices. Consequently, he opted to postpone any further crypto investments from April 15th until May 1st, to minimize potential risks. As anticipated, Real Return Rate (RRP) surged by 33%, Bitcoin increased by 9%, the S&P 500 Index experienced a decline of 1%, and gold dropped by 3%. This prophecy and its subsequent fulfillment represented Hayes’ second successful prediction.
From here, his other predictions, including the one on the BTC price, did not fall through. His most recent prediction came in the same month in an essay titled “Boom Times … Delayed”.
Initially, Hayes anticipated that the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates would be met with a negative market response. However, on September 18, the Fed decided on a 50-basis-point cut, which was less than what some had expected. Interestingly, both US stocks and cryptocurrencies responded positively to this move. Currently, the market is on an upward trend, with Bitcoin’s price testing $64,500 following a 3.2% increase over the past month.
Besides all his predictions, Hayes suggests that the various Quantitative Easing (QE) strategies implemented by governments could positively impact Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market. Moreover, he offered insights on how market players might capitalize on the anticipated rise in Bitcoin’s value.
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2024-09-26 17:42