As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I’ve witnessed numerous bull and bear cycles, from the dot-com bubble to the 2008 global financial crisis. In that context, the current state of the crypto market, particularly Ethereum, presents an intriguing case study.
In the recent period when the U.S. interest rate cuts were announced, Bitcoin‘s price took the lead in a modest recovery across the crypto market. Meanwhile, Ethereum also experienced a surge, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum trading at approximately $62,705 and $2,421 respectively during early New York session on Thursday. Bitcoin, currently valued at around $1.24 trillion and trading a daily volume of about $53.37 billion, has bounced back from a significant support range, indicating the end of a prolonged correction phase. Ethereum, with a fully diluted valuation of approximately $293 billion and a daily average traded volume of around $20.30 billion, follows suit in this recovery trend.
Despite a bearish signal indicated by the crossover of the 50 and 200 Moving Averages recently, Ethereum’s price against the US dollar appears to be constructing a reversal pattern. Additionally, Ethereum’s daily chart indicates a robust support zone between $2,147 and $2,255, suggesting a possible triple bottom formation.
In simpler terms, if the Ethereum price keeps closing at more than $2,450 each day while the RSI line keeps moving upwards, it suggests a new bullish trend is likely to start.
If the optimistic views about cryptocurrency persist over the short term, the Ethereum price could potentially reach $2,768 – a level that aligns with the 1.618 daily Fibonacci Extension.
Ethereum Whales Remains Undecided
Based on data analysis from Coinglass, the quantity of Ethereum held on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges (CEXs) has stayed relatively steady at approximately 15.3 million units since March, even after a price decrease of over 15%. Contrary to expectations, the amount of Ether stored on CEXs didn’t decrease significantly in recent times, despite the approval of US spot Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
Since their approval in July, U.S. spot Ether ETFs have collectively seen an outflow of approximately $615 million in cash.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed a consistent trend: U.S. spot Ether ETFs have seen five straight cash outflows, performing poorly compared to Bitcoin. This underperformance is concerning, especially given that the outflows from these Ether ETFs are predicted to persist in the short term. The situation seems particularly grave when considering Grayscale’s ETHE, with its massive $2.7 billion in assets under management (AUM), continues to lose value.
On Wednesday, U.S. Ethereum-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) collectively experienced a withdrawal of approximately $9.7 million, but it’s worth noting that BlackRock’s ETHA was the only one to report a deposit of around $4.92 million.
Simultaneously, it’s evident from blockchain information that a long-standing Ether investor who originally acquired 50,000 ETH during Ethereum’s Initial Coin Offering (ICO) moved approximately 10,000 Ether units, valued at over $24 million, to the Kraken exchange.
15 minutes ago, an Ethereum ICO investor deposited a sum of approximately 10,000 ETH (equivalent to around 24.37 million dollars) into the Kraken platform, marking their first activity in over two years!
The participant received 50,000 $ETH(ICO cost was $15.5K, now worth $121.85M) at #GENESIS.
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) September 19, 2024
Bigger Picture
In terms of dominance within the web3 realm, it’s clear that the Ethereum network reigns supreme, holding a significant portion – approximately 56% – of the total value locked (TVL), which amounts to $46 billion out of a grand total of $82 billion. Furthermore, Ethereum controls a substantial chunk – around 57% – of the stablecoins market capitalization, which currently stands at about $83 billion.
Regardless of the arrival of a new primary blockchain, it’s anticipated that the Ethereum environment, powered by its EVM network, will see extraordinary growth in the coming years.
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2024-09-19 17:00